Single digit E.S. dont mean squat.

[L.Sherm]

Changing primers and powder wouldn't be tuning because they are the base components for the load.

So you dont think changing primers affects how a load shoots just like adjusting your charge rate? Ever chronographed different primers with the exact same load, if you have you will see that the velocity goes up and down just like adjusting your powder charge.
Theres a " tuning" list Alex posted on LRO how he starts tuning a load and I do pretty much exactly the same way, ive been fortunate to shoot with one of his shooters who tests more than anybody I know out there and Alex has said the same thing. He has helped me " tune " up my loads these last few years by watching, listening and asking Questions.
I originally made this post to show that people who obsese with single digit E.S. need to understand its not the end all be all especially for 99% percent of us me included, I have no interest at anything past 1,000 and in all reality not quite even that far hunting.
The one on the right is the first paragraph

 

[dfanonymous]

Actually it can't. If you shoot 3 and the es is x no matter how many more shots you take the es will never be smaller than x. I'm pretty sure that was his point.

And @Beluebow

Sure, that's if you measure it like with a tape measure…take 5 shots and take out the actual measured extreme spread and measure just the mean radius. You can see how you can essentially have a high, low and average ES this way, right?


That's the fun thing about data and averages. On one hand you don't want to ignore the measured ES, but on the other hand, the middle part of the group is what will typically matters the most.

 

[Culpeper]

This isn't about averages to me. I don't shoot out barrels for averages.
I shoot animals.
Out of curiosity, at what point is a sample size adequate to the statistical minded?

@biednick answered based on statistical confidence. But we don't really work with statistical samples. For that we would need a large population to start. If you load and test 5 rounds than that is your population. If you load 5 and test 3 than that is your sample. And not a valid sample as statistically the population is too small. What we do with simple variables like MV, ES, AVG, and SD is measure performance. One thing these chronos don't do is calculate that you have reached the coveted 90% confidence level. Luckily, we know, we get there after 25-30 rounds. And all that means is you can say I'm 90% sure my group size(s) are accurate. That is all there is to it.

 

[L.Sherm]

And not a valid sample has statistically the population is too small

And why is that for a hunting rifle that a 3 shot group will repeat.
If I go out and a 3 shot group will repeat on my hunting rifles I dont care what statistics say. The only thing i care about is what the target tells me.

 

[VinceMule]

A smart guy on the forum told me recently that even though ES can be very tight sometime, you still may find yourself outside of good harmonic balance.
satisfied my curiosity.

We knew this 40 years ago, nothing new.

 

[Culpeper]

And why is that for a hunting rifle that a 3 shot group will repeat.
If I go out and a 3 shot group will repeat on my hunting rifles I dont care what statistics say. The only thing i care about is what the target tells me.

You're not going to get an argument from me on that. I understand statistics because I worked with random and statistical sampling for 25 years. We don't need statistics to develop a good load as you well know.

 

[Equalizer]

So you dont think changing primers affects how a load shoots just like adjusting your charge rate? Ever chronographed different primers with the exact same load, if you have you will see that the velocity goes up and down just like adjusting your powder charge.
Theres a " tuning" list Alex posted on LRO how he starts tuning a load and I do pretty much exactly the same way, ive been fortunate to shoot with one of his shooters who tests more than anybody I know out there and Alex has said the same thing. He has helped me " tune " up my loads these last few years by watching, listening and asking Questions.
I originally made this post to show that people who obsese with single digit E.S. need to understand its not the end all be all especially for 99% percent of us me included, I have no interest at anything past 1,000 and in all reality not quite even that far hunting.
The one on the right is the first paragraph

I'm simply stating that if you change primers then that's a different "load" it's not tuning. Plain old English man. You have to understand the terms you're using. Ever heard a load called a "recipe"?
If you change the ingredients it's a different recipe. See?

If I told you that you put your clip in backwards you'd likely tell me it was a magazine…

Yes a primer swap or difference in charge weight will affect your data and poi

No disrespect intended Sir

 

[Equalizer]

And @Beluebow

Sure, that's if you measure it like with a tape measure…take 5 shots and take out the actual measured extreme spread and measure just the mean radius. You can see how you can essentially have a high, low and average ES this way, right?


That's the fun thing about data and averages. On one hand you don't want to ignore the measured ES, but on the other hand, the middle part of the group is what will typically matters the most.

Sir,

I'm not talking about tape measures. The reality is whatever es you get from three shots CAN'T get smaller no matter how many more shots you take. (Same exact load) it can only remain the same or increase. If you use the mean data then it will have to follow the spread data, It's relative.

So if you use the mean will it get smaller if you shoot more shots?

Exactly

 

[Barehandlineman11]

I can change the way a loads es sd just from hand priming to runnings my primal rights priming tool. I can also find what each particular gun likes more with 0 crush to crushing the anvil .002 too .004 depending on each guns ignition timing from firing pin fall too trigger timing. Splitting hairs but its there. Let alone changing a primer can change the whole dynamic.

 

[dfanonymous]

Sir,

I'm not talking about tape measures. The reality is whatever es you get from three shots CAN'T get smaller no matter how many more shots you take. (Same exact load) it can only remain the same or increase.

"Can it get better? ….it could. If you have only 1 or 2 outliers in a groups velocity of 10 or more shots…It can extremely effect your average…depending on how extreme those outliers are…and that's what we typically look at…the average right? Or alternatively, if it's a small deviation, it might not have any significant affect at all."

This is copy and pasted from what I said. Will it get better was the original question of the topic.
No it won't get smaller on a 3 shot group. When measured. That's not what I went on to explain.
Read what I'm saying, when I say it could. It could in context to how you look at it. What matters.

If you take away the extreme spread that is measured, and use the mean radius of the group….then the number you're looking has to get smaller.

Technically, it's just the mean radius and not a actual ES, but since some people don't know what that means, I'm calling it the average of the ES…that number is a smaller number and arguably a better number for a more realistic idea of verticals dispersion when crunching numbers, for those that care to. Verticals dispersion helps with hit probability %.

That's all I'm saying.

If you have a 3 shot ES, and one shot was human error and the 3rd shot got cooked in the chamber a little…how does that data help?

 

[Beluebow]

measure just the mean radius.

The mean radius will be a measurement based the shooters skill/conditions/accuracy of said rifle...

 

[dfanonymous]

The mean radius will be a measurement based the shooters skill/conditions/accuracy of said rifle...

Same can be said said about ES. Which is the furthest distance between two shots…

 

[Equalizer]

Sure but isn't the es the measure of velocity not impact on target? Ever have a ladder shoot same or very close poi even though the velocity is different?

 

[Equalizer]

If you have a 3 shot ES, and one shot was human error and the 3rd shot got cooked in the chamber a little…how does that data help?

As far as data is concerned crap in equals crap out. That's on each person and their due diligence to obtain usable data. And If you knew those things I'd suspect that you wouldn't include them in your analysis.