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Single digit E.S. dont mean squat.

I had a load I threw together right before hunting season on a new rifle, 1/2" group at a 100 yards. Just validating velocity, it had a 75 ES. I went with it for the year for 100-300 yard blind hunting. The new load is waayyy better. Then again, with the right bullet weight, this gun has shot great with every load I put through it.
 
It's not that ES isn't important, it's just that barrel tune dominates over powder tune.
Completely separate and different things.
Primers and bullet seating are different and separate again, and are not tuning at all. They're prerequisite to tuning.

It developed as a total abstract because people fail to recognize this.
 
Most take a shot es. I like to see my guns replicate. Good on target with single digit es over ten shots and repeat it on different day.
I agree, replication is key. I do think true single digit ES (outside of some of the BR variants) is a whole lot harder to get than alot of guys think. I have shot some 3 and 5 shot groups with a ES of 5 fps, but realistically after using the Labradar on every round in a box of 50 while shooting steel, verifying dope, etc it's really more like 15-22 fps even on a well tuned load.
 
Yes, ES matters more at further distance. As your target remains at the same size but goes back further in distance, narrowing its scale, a larger ES will reduce hit probability. It's not that impressive to be able to hit a 3x3 ft target a 1000….a 4inch target however…you'll want a little lower ES for consistency.

That said, in my own testing, factory ammo has gotten in the mid 20s for ES (on 10 shot groups in the same lot#) and performs as one would expect. 14 inch square at 1000y isn't too difficult.

At close/r range, you may not even notice the ES difference. It's possible one can have a fairly bad group at 100y and have a tight ES. The same goes for having a tight group and a horrible ES. In this case, you use your ballistic software, your hit probability goes down because that large ES swing deviates too far from the muzzle velocity you are using in the software, for that longer distance.
 
I don't obsess over ES, but like everything we do in reloading, it does matter. I was recently running a pressure ladder on a new powder and bullet combination at 100 yards. 6 shots before heavy bolt lift with .5 grain increases. The target doesn't tell me much at 100 yards. The one over pressure load was high and right and trashed my brass. I didn't get a velocity reading on the over pressure round. The others saw very little vertical dispersion.
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Do you think ES will get better with more shots?
ES can be seen like loaded ammo runout. It doesn't matter until it does.
The important thing is to understand -when it does.
I don't really get the point of the question, if that was going to be the response.

Can it get better? ….it could. If you have only 1 or 2 outliers in a groups velocity of 10 or more shots…It can extremely effect your average…depending on how extreme those outliers are…and that's what we typically look at…the average right? Or alternatively, if it's a small deviation, it might not have any significant affect at all.

As to when it matters…it matters the the further out you go. If you're ES is 56…what do you think your hit probability is at 2 miles…?

An extreme example for the sake of making a point.
 
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