Shot selection, how do you know?

[Damage Inc.]

Good call Lance… and we all did take that shot at 700…. and miss. I've been saying it for a decade; after about 600, things get Squirrley fast, in even moderately windy alpine conditions.

One of the guys has a goat tag this year, so I figured it'd be a good place to shoot. He took the very first shot of the day, and would have drilled a goat (570 rock). Depending on the direction it was facing, the miss on the 700 yard rock would have either been a clean miss, or a serious goat rodeo.

I learned (again) to trust my gut (or "undocumented experience" as Med refers to it).

Here's the landing…. 570 rock red arrow(ish), 700 yard rock blue arrow(ish). Wind 2-4 mph, from 4:00 - 6:00 (as the pic sits now.

 

[jasent]

Good call Lance… and we all did take that shot at 700…. and miss. I've been saying it for a decade; after about 600, things get Squirrley fast, in even moderately windy alpine conditions.

One of the guys has a goat tag this year, so I figured it'd be a good place to shoot. He took the very first shot of the day, and would have drilled a goat (570 rock). Depending on the direction it was facing, the miss on the 700 yard rock would have either been a clean miss, or a serious goat rodeo.

I learned (again) to trust my gut (or "undocumented experience" as Med refers to it).

Here's the landing…. 570 rock red arrow(ish), 700 yard rock blue arrow(ish). Wind 2-4 mph, from 4:00 - 6:00 (as the pic sits now.

View attachment 383093

From what I'm seeing I'd say misses where bit high left? Bet the wind gets a bit squirrelly in that saddle

 

[Willybuck]

Hmm! On the uphill shot view and bullet travel are much closer to earth contour which may have created a thermal lift or visual aberration.

 

[Damage Inc.]

Misses were primarily to the right…. and the left… sometimes consecutively.

Those fishtailing winds are a bitch.

 

[lancetkenyon]

Good call Lance… and we all did take that shot at 700…. and miss. I've been saying it for a decade; after about 600, things get Squirrley fast, in even moderately windy alpine conditions.

One of the guys has a goat tag this year, so I figured it'd be a good place to shoot. He took the very first shot of the day, and would have drilled a goat (570 rock). Depending on the direction it was facing, the miss on the 700 yard rock would have either been a clean miss, or a serious goat rodeo.

I learned (again) to trust my gut (or "undocumented experience" as Med refers to it).

Here's the landing…. 570 rock red arrow(ish), 700 yard rock blue arrow(ish). Wind 2-4 mph, from 4:00 - 6:00 (as the pic sits now.

View attachment 383093

Man, what a view!!!

 

[Willybuck]

I found this blog regarding "Mirage" . This bending of what you see due to rising heat from the ground can make the target appear as if it is right or left depending in the breeze direction. The closer the bullet path is to the terrain the more effect it has on impact point vs sight line.

At higher magnification powers you can see the heat waves through your scope.

You are being redirected...

 

[Dirtrax]

Good call Lance… and we all did take that shot at 700…. and miss. I've been saying it for a decade; after about 600, things get Squirrley fast, in even moderately windy alpine conditions.

One of the guys has a goat tag this year, so I figured it'd be a good place to shoot. He took the very first shot of the day, and would have drilled a goat (570 rock). Depending on the direction it was facing, the miss on the 700 yard rock would have either been a clean miss, or a serious goat rodeo.

I learned (again) to trust my gut (or "undocumented experience" as Med refers to it).

Here's the landing…. 570 rock red arrow(ish), 700 yard rock blue arrow(ish). Wind 2-4 mph, from 4:00 - 6:00 (as the pic sits now.

View attachment 383093

West side or east WA? Man that looks so much like what we shoot in N Idaho. I'm definitely feeling where you're coming from on those shots in that there is no way to empirically "document" what's happening between rifle and target. Experience is anecdotal evidence and it just tells you things can get weird. Rocks yes, animals no sometimes.

 

[Ckgworks]

No one mentioned confidence......That's it for me, when you have shot alot you instantly know your limitations. As soon as you begin hemming and hawing about the shot you have already begun talking yourself into a miss. I'm still working my way through reading wind at longer ranges, and as soon as there's a odd wind I immediately start second guessing and often lead myself astray.
There was a time when I shot my bow daily and several animals were cleanly taken when afterwards you look back at the shot and wonder how you saw your shot opportunity. I believe the more you shoot the more your brain just knows, and you react.

Obviously all of the can also be completely overshadowed by cockyness..... we've all seen or heard of the people blazing away long past there capability.

 

[Damage Inc.]

Dirt…. Yes'sir, that's somewhere between Chinook Pass and Snoqualmie Pass.

Empirical evidence rules…. whether it's in your head, or somehow translated into a log book.

 

[memtb]

My question to the forum is this:

How do you determine, quickly, if the shot presented is a viable shot (for you)?

Context of the conversation:

Took a buddy and one of his buddies up shooting yesterday. Not super long range, but shots on rocks out to 700 or so.

As we were picking a few rocks out to shoot, but before any shots were fired, I made the comment that I "liked" the potential shot at 570 yards (across the canyon, down about 10 degrees), but I "didn't like" a very similar shot at 700 yards (up the canyon, and up about 10 degrees).

"Because it's too far?" Was the question I heard.

"No, 700 isn't too far…. I just know a tough shot when I see one. It's not the distance. It's all the added variables."

Then….

All three shooters hammered the rock at 570 with the first round, and whiffed badly on the rock at 700 with the first round. Not much was said at that point, but a discussion broke out on the ride home.

"How did you know that shot at 700 was going to be way tougher than the shot at 600?" Asks my buddy…..

"Thousands of spent primers", was my reply.

I went on to extol the virtues of actual field shooting…. in the wind, and the rain, and the snow, and the heat, and the cold. In the mountains, on the prairies, in the desert, in the jungle. Off of bipods and backpacks and blow-downs and jackets rolled-up on a rock.

I reckon I've shot enough now, that I know shots that I "like", and shots that I don't….. almost instantly.

I suppose Dirty Harry was right…. A man DOES have to know his limitations.

No one ever "knows" with absolute certainty!

I do not extend my shots beyond the range at which I am assured proper bullet expansion, energy does not even enter the equation! The shots must be within my shooting abilities!

Then, unless absolute "dead calm" or nearly so, my shots are also limited to my ability as a shooter. I have no qualms about shooting steel or paper in less than ideal atmospheric shooting conditions….but, am much more conservative when big game is involved! I do not trust my "wind doping" expertise when shooting game!

Last but not least, my "gut feeling"! If I feel uneasy…..I'll pass on the shot! A wounded and potentially lost animal is simply not worth the risks! JMO! memtb