atepointer
Well-Known Member
I like this great idea.... we will give this a shot at 992 next week.
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What is your hit probability on a 10" target at 1000 yards? First shot.
- Thread starter LRNut
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Huntnful
Well-Known Member
Are F class shooters shooting the absolute best platform to get first round 1 MOA impact at 1000 yards? Or are they shooting the best platform to be able to make the necessary adjustments after their first shots, and then be able to shoot 20 more shots without over fouling and overheating their barrels? This is an honest question.
I would think a 230 A-tip at 3100FPS would have a much higher first round impact probability, than a 180 hybrid at 2800fps.
I would think a 230 A-tip at 3100FPS would have a much higher first round impact probability, than a 180 hybrid at 2800fps.
lancetkenyon
Well-Known Member
From this morning. I made a decent wind call at 1016 yards, 6CM w. 105 Hyb @ 3188fps. 12" plate. I figured 6mph from 10 o'clock. My spotter (brother) wasn't quite ready to call the shot yet, but 3 for 3. Cold bore, cold shooter, first 3 shotsof the day.
Lance is that a Harris bipod!?!?!?!?
lancetkenyon
Well-Known Member
Yep. I run them on most of my rifles.
QuietTexan
Well-Known Member
Wow. There's a lot of to unpack here. I'll be charitable and set aside your (very incorrect) assumption on round counts because you're just being silly trying to claim some of us here have fired less than 500 rounds at 1000 yards in our lifetimes
Maybe less than 500 so far this year, but the year is still young. And there are so many yard lines other than the 1000 that I like to shoot at.Anyways, you are comparing apples and oranges. You're ignoring the aspects of F-Class that makes the discipline different from other shooting sports, and then you're trying to use it to gatekeep ELR when there's very little direct cross over between the two. Every difference in rules matters. Sighters versus spotters is not a trivial thing. You're ignoring the pressure F-Class puts on external ballistics - how it specifically rewards shooting smaller cartridges that do not do as well in the wind as pretty much ANY magnum cartridge. ELR guys get to have one to two teammates with them - a spotter and maybe a wind coach, so they get to divide the mental and physical work loads.
The ideal rifle to make a cold bore hit is not the same one that's the best for jacking 20 rounds in a row into a target. A basic understanding of external ballistics should make that incredibly apparent to everyone.
Not anywhere than on the 1000 yard line at an F-Class match
You get sighters and the distance is fixed, so there's very little concern with how much a bullet drops on it's way to the target. The game is horizontal - wind. Any decent ELR rifle is a better platform for first round 1 MOA impact at 1000 yards because they typically shoot heavier, higher-BC bullets, faster. All three of those things shrink the probability cone on a single shot.Even then (as Lance just proved yet again), shooter knowledge of the particular round being fired matters more than anything other than your wind call. There's a guy who owns a range here in North Texas who has made multiple 1-mile Sub-2MOa cold bore shots with a 223 AI, so something does need to said on the value of repetition and practice!
Yes, that's exactly what they are. That's why actions why actions are short and fat and have separate feed and ejection ports (to balance weight, rigidity, and cycling speed), why the stocks are carefully built to track in bags, why the barrel contours are what they are to meet weight requirements yet be as rigid as possible. It's why the scopes come in 0.05mil and 1/8 MOA - because we actually click the dials instead of changing the hold. One of the many mental tasks going on in your head is looking at the target in the mirage and making sure you're shooting where the target is and not where it isn't. A 20 round string of fire creates barrel mirage on top of surface mirage, even with a shield it causes issues.
It's something you have to do to understand. How can you explain to someone that even though you're shooting at the target you see, that's not where the target actually IS but rather where the light is bending too before it gets to your eye.
It would have a better probability with the range of each variable being held consistent. Wind bracket, range bracket, velocity bracket, BC bracket.
Cal Zandt wrote a 7-part series on how much does each cluster of variables actually matter. The summary in one picture is pretty telling:
How Much Does It Matter? Overall Summary
As long-range shooters, we tend to obsess over every little detail. After all, we’re trying to hit r...
F-Class shortcuts the entire concept of more accurate ranging by giving you sighters. PRS doesn't do that, ELR doesn't do that, hunting doesn't do that, and that's what makes it a very narrowly tailored game of wind reading. It even lets you cheat a little on the wind by giving you sighters on the first relay. Palma does the same thing as F-Class, but triples-down on difficultly be taking away the scope AND rest. Those guys are.... unique.
Better cartridge selection is made much more difficult in F-Class because you have to consider self-spotting, trying to make rapid follow-up shots, and and wanting the gun the track and not require resetting during the course of fire. It favors smaller, non-magnum rounds in general, but rewards guys who can drive bigger rifles. Best 1000-yard 10-shot group ag was shot with a 300 WSM, but mid-range 7s and hot 6s are what you see be competitive in most matches.
If you're at a PRS match and the card says "troop line - 500-600-700 - one shot each out, one shot each back" then you have to 1) laser each target to make sure it's within 30 yards of what the card claims, then 2) mentally update your drops on the way out to run on the way back in. On top of correcting your wind hold bracket and constantly rebuilding your firing position. Kind of makes sense why ~2MOA targets are common in PRS - it would be no fun to make the targets 1/2 MOA and go out and miss every shot because you're running so many variables inside your head every shot while contorting your body
1. Know your DOPE
(altitude, temp, Humidity, spin drift, declination (gravity), location (Coriolis effect longitude (east to west), latitude (North to South) which degree direction you are shooting. AND MIRAGE. This really takes effect at 1K yds+++
2. Range your target
3. Read the wind
Now all this can be done with modern tools (Kestrel Meter)
4. SHOOT
Also "Cold Bore Shot" is really not referring to a "COLD Temperature" barrel. If you have your rifle sighted in with a "Fouled Barrel" your next shot will have the same POI even several days later with the same Fouled Barrel. (not saying to shoot ten shots in a row with a heated fouled barrel and use that POI sighted in for your rifle.)
Now when using the "Cold Bore" Shot with a Cleaned Barrel your first shot will be the POI, but the follow up shots may be different POI as the barrel "Fouls" probably not too noticeable at 100 yds, but if going distance it may be fractions of a MOA or more.
I know that sometimes when I work at the range I just shoot (7) rounds 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 966 and go home. The next time I get to the range I shoot without cleaning, I get the data from my Kestrel for 966 yds set my elevation, read the wind and BANG ring the steel dead center.
IT IS MORE WIND THAN ANYTHING!
So it is all the WIND more than anything else if you can hit 1 MOA at 1K the first shot or any other shots!
If you shoot a lot at the same range and kind of know the "Wind" Patterns with trees, gullies. hills, prevailing winds, times of day you have an advantage.
Going to a new Range and not knowing the terrain can be difficult for the windy days.
(altitude, temp, Humidity, spin drift, declination (gravity), location (Coriolis effect longitude (east to west), latitude (North to South) which degree direction you are shooting. AND MIRAGE. This really takes effect at 1K yds+++
2. Range your target
3. Read the wind
Now all this can be done with modern tools (Kestrel Meter)
4. SHOOT
Also "Cold Bore Shot" is really not referring to a "COLD Temperature" barrel. If you have your rifle sighted in with a "Fouled Barrel" your next shot will have the same POI even several days later with the same Fouled Barrel. (not saying to shoot ten shots in a row with a heated fouled barrel and use that POI sighted in for your rifle.)
Now when using the "Cold Bore" Shot with a Cleaned Barrel your first shot will be the POI, but the follow up shots may be different POI as the barrel "Fouls" probably not too noticeable at 100 yds, but if going distance it may be fractions of a MOA or more.
I know that sometimes when I work at the range I just shoot (7) rounds 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 966 and go home. The next time I get to the range I shoot without cleaning, I get the data from my Kestrel for 966 yds set my elevation, read the wind and BANG ring the steel dead center.
IT IS MORE WIND THAN ANYTHING!
So it is all the WIND more than anything else if you can hit 1 MOA at 1K the first shot or any other shots!
If you shoot a lot at the same range and kind of know the "Wind" Patterns with trees, gullies. hills, prevailing winds, times of day you have an advantage.
Going to a new Range and not knowing the terrain can be difficult for the windy days.
Panhandle Pete
Well-Known Member
I
I prefer hatchet distance shooting when possible, just saying.
codyadams
Well-Known Member
Come on Lance, your not an F-class shooter, that's not possible.....fake news. Lol.
Good sends brother.
DoneNOut
Well-Known Member
Whoops. The question asked about a 10" target at 1000, and I went down some existential response of shooting critters. I don't even drink anymore! So I've no other excuse other than a candy corn high? Too young to be this daggum old?
I'm gonna see what happens with a test this week. Good opportunity to use the target camera. 10x10 square.
So I've no other excuse other than a candy corn high? Too young to be this daggum old? I'm gonna see what happens with a test this week. Good opportunity to use the target camera. 10x10 square.
Buxndiverdux
Well-Known Member
I'll say my odds of a 1st round hit at 1K on a 10" circle with steady light wind and a range I shoot at often are probably 75% on 2-3 rifles. No wind at all and it's likley 90%. I'm talking about hunting weight rifles under 11lbs.
Take me to a place I've never shot before, and have no prior knowledge of how the wind and terrain effect each other and it's blowing 5-10 variable with gusts to 12, and I bet it goes down to 50%. My rifles are capable of doing it every time. But that wind is a fickle mistress. Keep in mind, I'm not a professional shooter, but I've fired a few rounds over the years. I've been humbled plenty of times by simply switching locations and conditions. The more familiar I am with the shooting range and how the wind and terrain effect impacts, the better my wind calls are because I have experience with the location.
Does that make sense to everyone else?
Take me to a place I've never shot before, and have no prior knowledge of how the wind and terrain effect each other and it's blowing 5-10 variable with gusts to 12, and I bet it goes down to 50%. My rifles are capable of doing it every time. But that wind is a fickle mistress. Keep in mind, I'm not a professional shooter, but I've fired a few rounds over the years. I've been humbled plenty of times by simply switching locations and conditions. The more familiar I am with the shooting range and how the wind and terrain effect impacts, the better my wind calls are because I have experience with the location.
Does that make sense to everyone else?
QuietTexan
Well-Known Member
Yes, you're making perfect sense.
It's a big part of the argument supporting hunting with large magnums, because higher-BC and heavier bullets going faster always work better against the wind and give you an edge against all the variables you described.
I'm in the camp of terminal ballistics is simply a matter of the bullet arriving going fast enough to expand correctly and don't get into energy levels or anything like that. Yet I'm still a fan of big boomers because of how much more leeway they give in the ballistic portion of a shot. That's why I'm planning to go hunting with some light field artillery next year in the form of a 300 LIMP
3000+ FPS from a 245gn Berger is going to leave a mark...This is the same reason match shooters can hit high percentages of first rounds. They're in a place where so many variables are controlled and they've shot so many times they're only working against one variable (wind) and not environment, range, ammo, recoil, fatigue, etc. When the wind is something they've worked against before (same amount at same location) they can guess it pretty darn good.
I shoot at a range where around 1100 yards a cut opens in the tree line and wind values almost double to stay on target at the next yard line. It might be unfair the new guys at a match who don't know what's going to happen to watch them miss big rolling out 100 more yards, but hey if you ain't first you're last, right?
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LRNut
Well-Known Member
I have been busy for the last week but Quiet Texan, I appreciate your input as well as others. I hired a consulting company to help my firm and part of what they do is a series of personality tests, etc. We reviewed those today. I scored low on avoiding conflict - imagine that.
I shot with Bryan today at the rather pedestrian range of 500 yards; he put 10 shots into a 1.6" vertical group. The wind was blowing so his group was perhaps 2" wide, but he shot a paper target (but who knows, might have been able to see the bullet holes with his 60X scope). BTW, his ten shots had an SD of 1.5 and an extreme spread of 5 fps!
The point about knowing the range conditions is something I have commented on before - at the PRGC range I typically hold for about half to 3/4 of what the mirage tells me due to the berms on one side and the mountain on the left. When I am at my CO place, I know my holdoff at 620 is not what it would be on flat open ground because I am shooting into a bit of protected draw/small valley.
I am also a bit surprised no one mentioned whether they can see mirage. My ability to hit is much higher if I can see mirage. Give me a cloudy windy day, and it is a whole different ballgame.
I am a big fan of WEZ models and applying probabilities to outcomes, esp the wind. I think there are some folks who think with enough practice, they could hit a 10" target 95% of the time well past 1000 yards with first time shots. My point is at some point, TOF, wind variance, etc, means it is statistically impossible. I agree, big boomers help; I shoot Lapuas, an Edge, several 300 RUMs, and two 28Ns - with high BC bullets is is far easier than using a .308 but even these drift excessively in a 1 mph wind at 1000 yards. I recall an experiment Litz did with an array of anemometers downrange that recorded wind speeds: he observed that the wind often changed enough during the TOF to substantially degrade the probability of a hit.
After shooting every day in the wind at my CO place, my biggest surprise is hitting that 10" target in very strong winds is much easier at 400 or even 600 yards than it is at 1000 or farther in a wind less than 10 mph but that varies just a few miles per hour or even worse, fishtails from 11 to 1 oclock or 5 to 7.
I got to try a prototype device that used lasers to measure wind out to 500 and it was **** impressive, but even that device took about 2 seconds to read the wind - plenty of time for it to change since you clicked the button, but still, knowing exactly what it was 2 seconds ago was a huge advantage, esp if someone was calling the wind and you were looking at mirage via your parallax adjustment - if the mirage flattened more, shade more. But even then, I was shooting at only three different distances and as they called the wind, I didn't have to look at a kestrel or zap it with my SIG - I knew my holdoff instantly. Regrettably, it never left the prototype stage.
I shot with Bryan today at the rather pedestrian range of 500 yards; he put 10 shots into a 1.6" vertical group. The wind was blowing so his group was perhaps 2" wide, but he shot a paper target (but who knows, might have been able to see the bullet holes with his 60X scope). BTW, his ten shots had an SD of 1.5 and an extreme spread of 5 fps!
The point about knowing the range conditions is something I have commented on before - at the PRGC range I typically hold for about half to 3/4 of what the mirage tells me due to the berms on one side and the mountain on the left. When I am at my CO place, I know my holdoff at 620 is not what it would be on flat open ground because I am shooting into a bit of protected draw/small valley.
I am also a bit surprised no one mentioned whether they can see mirage. My ability to hit is much higher if I can see mirage. Give me a cloudy windy day, and it is a whole different ballgame.
I am a big fan of WEZ models and applying probabilities to outcomes, esp the wind. I think there are some folks who think with enough practice, they could hit a 10" target 95% of the time well past 1000 yards with first time shots. My point is at some point, TOF, wind variance, etc, means it is statistically impossible. I agree, big boomers help; I shoot Lapuas, an Edge, several 300 RUMs, and two 28Ns - with high BC bullets is is far easier than using a .308 but even these drift excessively in a 1 mph wind at 1000 yards. I recall an experiment Litz did with an array of anemometers downrange that recorded wind speeds: he observed that the wind often changed enough during the TOF to substantially degrade the probability of a hit.
After shooting every day in the wind at my CO place, my biggest surprise is hitting that 10" target in very strong winds is much easier at 400 or even 600 yards than it is at 1000 or farther in a wind less than 10 mph but that varies just a few miles per hour or even worse, fishtails from 11 to 1 oclock or 5 to 7.
I got to try a prototype device that used lasers to measure wind out to 500 and it was **** impressive, but even that device took about 2 seconds to read the wind - plenty of time for it to change since you clicked the button, but still, knowing exactly what it was 2 seconds ago was a huge advantage, esp if someone was calling the wind and you were looking at mirage via your parallax adjustment - if the mirage flattened more, shade more. But even then, I was shooting at only three different distances and as they called the wind, I didn't have to look at a kestrel or zap it with my SIG - I knew my holdoff instantly. Regrettably, it never left the prototype stage.
Huntnful
Well-Known Member
This brought to mind how terrible a varying head or tailwind is to shoot in. Easily doubles the error if wind switches from 11 to 1 o clock and you don't catch it. I'd MUCH rather shoot in a cross wind for sure.
