Having it track in a controlled setting, like putting the rifle in a vise proves that it will only work in a controlled setting. It proves nothing under recoil. I do mount my LR scopes on a fixture and test them before mounting, have found rather expensive big name scopes that have been off by as much as 10% (which is a huge amount) before even "waisting" ammo. I've also had scopes that I had to zero every time I took it out, scopes with wandering zero, would sling a round, and on and on. If you think it's the scope then put a proven scope on that rifle and check, or/and check that scope on a proven rifle. I've often found that guys blame the scope when it was something loose in the mounting system.
True, but it was all I could do until this weekend. There are two ranges near me and one is only allowing members (and I am not a member) and the other (the one I went to) is only open Friday through Sunday. So, I'll have to wait until this weekend to try anything under real world conditions.
When you change anything on a load, it changes the load and potential poi. Just adjusting seating depth I wouldn't expect a huge change though, but you never really know.
These last two seating depths were becoming compressed loads. It's a big case, but it's also a lot of powder with a long bullet. For the last depth, that would be a lot of vertical travel for a 0.040" change in depth.
I do have to ask, are you not supporting the rear of the rifle at all? If not you are going to have issues being consistent, that's shooter error. Even if you do support the rear, if you're not consistent with it then that is inducing error.
I do not use a rear bag when shooting. The butt of the rifle is only supported by the crease of my shoulder and a consistent backward pressure. I know I can get more consistent with a rear bag, but I don't hunt with one and want to practice (as best as the ranges I go to will allow) how I will shoot when hunting. I do try to be as consistent with my set up such as positioning, cheek weld, pressure with my shooting hand, as possible and I generally do well, but not as consistent as I would be with a rear support such as a bag.
You also mentioned possible shooter fatigue. You have to be honest with yourself, if when you break the shot you don't know where the poa was (call the shot) or think you pulled it then to me you did something wrong.
This may be what it was. It was in the upper 80s F here (which is plenty warm for the PNW) and at the point where things started to go awry I had already shot over 50 rounds of two, unbraked, high recoil rifles that each weigh around 9#.
The only thing that makes we question this is that only 1 of these last 8 rounds made it on paper. I would have expected to see a mess of holes rather than a blank. Especially on that last target given most right handed flinches land up and to the right. There was a lot of open real estate on that target in that vicinity for a round to land.
You have to be honest with yourself, if when you break the shot you don't know where the poa was (call the shot) or think you pulled it then to me you did something wrong. I would try again, but either with a proven load and/or scope (take both scopes as they are easy to swap) making sure I am giving the rifle every opportunity to perform (or to not) by properly supporting it. Or have someone (again proven) else shoot it. You need to eliminate the possible errors systematically, one by one. Honestly I would be putting myself at the top of that list.
In the upper two targets, both of the flyers I knew were bad once I pulled the trigger. This is something mental I'm working on. I'll get three really good shots in, clover leafs, and then almost always pull the last shot in a group of four. This is me and something I'm working on.
For the last two targets I shot at, the first round felt decent. Certainly not that high. I took some time to calm myself down and really focus for the next shot. Make sure that I was in a good position, my natural point of aim settled on the bulls eye after every breath, and really focused on that shot. Complete miss. For the next six rounds, I tried to do the same, but worry was starting to set in and I can't say that I was as successful at centering myself as I was on that round just after the high shot. Either way, I would have expected to see something on the paper at that distance.
Before I swap scopes, I'll head back out this weekend with a known load and check things again. It may very well be me, I just have a hard time seeing things go that far off the rails that quickly if it is.
I really appreciate your help and advice. From what you have told us about yourself, you have a lot of experience you can impart and I appreciate you took the time to respond.