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Does a gunsmith know when a barrel will shoot?

I agree…no. Too many other variables (chambering job, stock, bedding, quality of barrel crown, etc.). Get one from a good manufacturer - that is the best chance you have.

1/4 - 1/2 MOA groups out of a hunting rifle? I could understand if you were going for match rifle accuracy, but I'm not going to waste additional time and money driving to that result. The elk I hunt aren't that small…
 
I think all you can do is buy a good quality barrel form a company with a good reputation and take it to a smithy that knows how to set it up and cut a good chamber. Anything after that is magic. I bought a full bull barrel blank a few years back from a well know maker and put it on a customers rifle. He could not get it to shoot. I ended up pulling the barrel and sent it back to the maker just for a look see. He called me with an apology and sent me a new barrel. He obviously found and issue but would never tell what the issue was. Sometimes things just happen.
 
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