I'm not tempered by the statistical "odds" that I may become a bear attack victim. I prepare and act on my life experiences. The low odds haven't proven applicable to me. The more time you spend in bear country, the higher your odds, and the less pertinent those statistically calculated odds that could be based on the general population. 80% of the population never exposes themselves to bear habitat. I'd conclude they're risk free. Which odds maker knows the bear population where I spend time afield? Or knows how much time I spend afield? Do those odds account for folk that hunt bears? That track wounded bears? That sleep overnight in bear country, at times with game animal meat in the near vicinity of their sleeping quarters? Hunters that return to a downed animal carcass multiple times to retrieve the meat?
And of course, it doesn't matter if the odds are 1 in 100 or 1 in one 1,000,000,000, if you end up being the "1". After you're the one, your odds have proven 100%, regardless of statistically calculated odds.
Who paid who to calculate those odds? Did the National Park Service fund it? Those friendly folks that prioritize bear lives over park visitor lives? Government officials that fought tooth and nail to prohibit park visitors from carrying a firearm within our national parks?
A statistician can provide a client with any odds requested. Like ordering dinner in a restaurant. All that's required is money, and the latitude to contol the underlying assumptions.
What I do know...? I don't have 1 or 2 million aquaintences. Yet two of my aquaintences were attacked by bears. One killed. The other survived. So in the crowd I personally have met and known, real life after-the-attack odds are clearly much much greater than the odds the hired gun statisticians have projected.
And of course, it doesn't matter if the odds are 1 in 100 or 1 in one 1,000,000,000, if you end up being the "1". After you're the one, your odds have proven 100%, regardless of statistically calculated odds.
Who paid who to calculate those odds? Did the National Park Service fund it? Those friendly folks that prioritize bear lives over park visitor lives? Government officials that fought tooth and nail to prohibit park visitors from carrying a firearm within our national parks?
A statistician can provide a client with any odds requested. Like ordering dinner in a restaurant. All that's required is money, and the latitude to contol the underlying assumptions.
What I do know...? I don't have 1 or 2 million aquaintences. Yet two of my aquaintences were attacked by bears. One killed. The other survived. So in the crowd I personally have met and known, real life after-the-attack odds are clearly much much greater than the odds the hired gun statisticians have projected.
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