Do I think the 338 Lapua is just a fad? right now not sure but I hope not. as long as firearm companies keep making rifles and brass and components are available then I think it will be a strong ongoing option.
I don't feel the fad thing is related to the public but rather than manufacturers.
I don't think manufacturers are really on the bandwagon with what the public wants.
the are great cartridges out there that if allowed to prosper would do well.
take the 300 RUM and that family of cartridges for example. I think they are really great performers. Remington just did not follow up well enough to really help those survive...I think they are going by the way side. too bad too. I owned a Sendero 300 ultra. great rifle. had a brain fart and sold it. was considering getting another at this moment in my rifle hunt. I have a couple hundred rounds of brass just sitting at home. there are a few new Senderos available. but, no one can find any brass, anywhere. Seems like Remington in their infinite wisdom has decided to only sell loaded ammo. I cannot afford to only purchase loaded ammo. so, I won't purchase the rifle. most people who would consider this type of round are involved in reloading.
look at the 6.5x55 swede. I am not calling this a fad round. but great cartridge. in a modern rifle with better brass and higher power loads would run well with the 6.5 crowd. but for some reason the rifle companies don't make rifles in that round. maybe one here or there but the rifles designed do not exploit the long range accuracy potential of that cartridge. I shot and old military rifle in the swede. what a great shooting, smooth, fun time. would love to own one.
the WSM family of cartridges are great, accurate platforms. but once again the rifles being offered for these don't seem to exploit the potential of the cartridges.
I think what may be the saving grace of the 338 Lapua is the huge interest in long range shooting and hunting. seems like long range is here to stay and manufacturers are getting on the bandwagon selling products to promote this sport. just look at what has come out in the past 15 yrs or so....range finders with incredible capabilities, bullets with high BC, high power scopes with unreal glass, on and on.
as long as long range shooting/hunting is promoted I think many of the new "fad" cartridges will live on. we need them to.
There are only so many people who will buy a new rifle in any given caliber. Firearms MFG's like to come up with a New, Latest, Greatest, Bestest round occasionally and work hard to stir up interest in them.
When you look at the Swede, it's a great round but "it's old", and only a niche crowd was shooting anything in 6.5 as a hunting round in the US for several decades. Suddenly up pops the 6.5x47, Standardized 6.5x284, 260 Rem, and 6.5 Creedmore so there's lots of buzz on the forums and in magazines about them and they have created a big 6.5 push with major mfg's of both rifles and ammo/components spinning their way to the biggest market share while they can. Sooner or later one or two will become entrenched favorites and the rest will fade away.
Basically for decades we had Remington and Winchester competing and creating fads and now there are multiple good mfg's out there fighting for market share and so the fads will continue to come and go quicker than they used to since much more information can now be communicated via the internet than could have ever been done decades ago by the print media.
Add to that the hunting/shooting shows who showcase different "New, Better, Best" cartidges, rifles, and factory ammo and we just have a much more volatile and active marketplace especially with the explosion in tactical and long range shooting formats that have come into being in the last 20 years. The sport is growing rapidly and everyone wants to grab their market share as fast as they can and then they have to fight to hang onto it.
There will always be a very dedicated following for the 338 and with several different super 338's out there to choose from we'll probably always have at least a few of the major mfg's supporting the various 338's that are out there with a new, better, best tweaked .338 round popping up every few years to once again try and create a buzz and a demand.
There are a long list of reasons however as to why it will just never be a huge market as compared to the .300's, 7mm's, and 6.5's.
There will always be a following of the .338 but I doubt I will see the LM in the peoples gun cases as I see 30-06 and 300 WM. Much of that is controlled by the manuf.
