The problem with ammo and component supplies, some new facts

Status
Not open for further replies.

WildRose

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2011
Messages
15,226
Location
N. Texas and S. Africa
Based on some discussions we've had recently today I picked up the phone and called someone I know at Vista Outdoors. One thing my career provided me was an unlimited list of contacts in the industry and once in a while I break out my black book.

We spent a little over an hour on the phone and I learned a whole, whole lot.

Some basics everyone is interested in.

As I suspected ammo sales nationwide are at record highs. Federal alone has seen a 40% increase in each of the last two years.

As I knew, when it comes to components he confirmed that yes, there's a priority list. First on that list is their own factory ammo, next comes their committed contract buyers for whom they also provide ammo. Following those are the huge vendors like Cabelas/BP, SW Midway, Brownell's and Midsouth.

The only thing that makes it to the shelves for reloading components are overruns and excess so from primers to powder to bullets reloaders are at the bottom of the pile. The one exception to that is the powders that none of their contracts or their own proprietary ammo uses but of course, those are the last to be produced.

Because of this huge increase in customer demand they have also changed how they produce. Until the last few years they'd run say 2 million rounds of a given bullet, at a given weight on a regular schedule, same with ammo that way there was a fairly constant supply of a broad range of ammo and components.

Due to demand however if they've got six million cases and one type of bullet in a given cartridge, they'll run six million of that specific combo because it's already sold no matter how much they produce. Once that run is done, they'll move to the next in that same line if they have the components, if not they'll retool and run something else until they run out of components and on and on.

Yes, there are some supply chain issues which can sometimes affect the production schedule but if they are lacking one thing they just produce something else and then will rescheduled that skipped run once the necessities are available.

Bad news. I was told not to expect any large runs of Magnum Primers to start showing up on the shelves for the next 12-18 months as they simply cannot produce them fast enough.

Good news, they are very soon going to be doubling their primer production capacity. They are however so far behind on contract orders for both loaded ammo and primers it's still likely to take at least 12 months to get caught up.

We covered me topics and some of these in a more in depth way so feel free to ask questions. If I have an answer I'll provide it.
 
There is some good news in there, in that some of the items are starting to make it to the shelves a trickle at a time. For the next six months or so though that trickle is only going to improve slowly.

With Federal/CCI doubling primer production and the new manufacturer coming online there's at least hope on the horizon, something we really haven't had for several years now.

It's going to benefit us politically in the long term to have so many millions of new shooters and hunters entering the shooting sports but for the short term it's going to mean tighter supplies of everything from rifles to primers and of course correspondingly higher prices.

Apparently nobody in the industry was able to foresee just how big of a change was coming in shooting/hunting demographics five years ago so the entire industry was caught off guard.
 
Sounds legit. Are powder manufacturers equally behind or partially because of shipping holdups? (Boats sitting offshore or?)
Most of our available US Powders are actually made in the US. What I was told and I think he was credible is that the biggest issue with powders isn't the supply chain, it's the exponential increase in demand.

Remember that demand isn't even led by reloaders but by the ammo manufacturers themselves. We literally just get the leftovers.
 
WildRose - The thorough breakdown of the state of our current situation is greatly appreciated. Supply and demand is one of the most powerful influences in the economy. Too much $$ chasing too little supply is a basic economic principle that I wish our government leaders would finally understand.
The only good thing about our situation is our ability to respond to market pressures and bring talented and hard working people together to respond.
 
WildRose - The thorough breakdown of the state of our current situation is greatly appreciated. Supply and demand is one of the most powerful influences in the economy. Too much $$ chasing too little supply is a basic economic principle that I wish our government leaders would finally understand.
The only good thing about our situation is our ability to respond to market pressures and bring talented and hard working people together to respond.
I agree.

Sadly, with legalities and regulations being what they are not to mention liability considerations all seriously limit the number of new people/companies willing to gamble the many millions of dollars required to produce ammo and components.

We were for decades an ever shrinking percentage of the electorate as hunters and shooters and that created more and more regulatory and legal constraints on the industry. In spite of that we enjoyed a relatively unlimited supply of factory ammo and components for decades.

Now, we're an ever growing and more influential part of the electorate but that's placing a huge strain on an already very limited supply.

If free enterprise capitalism is allowed to be applied to this equation, in 2-5 years things will be much better but don't let us kid ourselves there's still a massive anti gun and anti hunting movement that is extremely well funded that is going to continue attempting to shut down that supply so at to make shooing, even possession of a firearm such a hassle many or most will just give it up completely.

We've got to be very pro active and that includes those of us who can reaching out to young people who show any interest at all in guns, hunting or sport shooting and mentor them to ensure the succeeding generations can all enjoy the same opportunities we have.
 
Last edited:
Good info. Inflation ... all basic economics, supply and demand. Look at Berger. They get military contracts and now near impossible to get any 215's.

I don't see this getting any better especially with Biden in for 3 more years
We have an opportunity to throw a grenade into the anti gun movement in November. I hope no matter what else is going on we can mobilize the public to get out and vote "pro gun, pro ammo, pro hunting" when they are considering candidates.

Unfortunately our traditional biggest weapon the NRA is so mired in controversy right now I don't think they are going to be a big part of the solution at least until the lawsuits and court cases get resolved.

We're going to have to be more pro active as individuals than ever before to make sure we can block any new restrictions at least until there's a change in presidents.

If you want to see what the future political landscape is going to be like take a look at how Beto O'Rourke has completely flipped on 2nd Amendment issues now that he's attempting to run against our current governor.

Two years ago he was among the most outspoken extremists proposing gun bans and even confiscation of "assault weapons" whereas today he'd have you believe he was the greatest defender of the 2nd Amendment in the last century.

Be sure when considering candidates you look at their history, not just the current rhetoric. We've seen all too often that once they get into office, no matter how they run to win they will are willing to throw their constituents off a cliff once they have power and who they really are and always have been comes out.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top