Unless it isn't about friction.
I think you're correct. I don't see MV changes with MS2. Barrel friction sems to be a minor part of the puzzle.
Similarly, but not in the same exact manner, HBN reduces bullet to bore friction... >reducing pressure... >reducing MV...
But for fun lets go the other direction. If reduced friction reduces muzzle velocity, increased friction should increase MV. The direct relationship has to work both ways.
Seems like copper fouling would also make this large of an impact on velocity if friction was the root cause. Copper fouling can sometimes cause high pressure issues in my experience, but I've never quantified a change in muzzle velocity due to it. Let's go with the assumption is it results in higher velocity since higher pressure (at least it shows higher pressure signs on the case), because that the assumption we're working with on the lower friction side.
My thought has always been fouling acts as a bore restriction since the metal buildup sits proud on the lands. Copper fouling is primarily at the muzzle end of the barrel, an any increase in velocity is at the end of the burn curve either way, increased friction or constriction.
So I went to look at static coefficient of friction for Copper-Copper and Copper-Steel.
Static coefficient:
Copper-Copper 1.6
Copper-Mild Steel 0.53
Aluminum-Aluminum 1.035
Cast Iron - Cast iron 1.1
Dynamic coefficient:
Copper-Copper ??? (see below)
Copper-Steel is 0.36.
Aluminum-Aluminum 1.4
Cast Iron - Cast iron 0.15
I put in the AL and cast iron to show two metals with similar static coefficients can be drastically different dynamically, so there's no way to guess at which way copper would go.
I found one paper saying that dynamic coefficient for Copper-Copper ranged from 0.4 to 1.1, but wasn't able to control for removing oil from the surface of the material consistently. If it's on the low end of 0.4 not a big deal, but if the 1.1 is correct then copper fouling might increase chamber pressure due to both increased friction and constriction.
Probably too many variables in alloy metals and hardness to really make a correlation though. Interesting thought experiment but I'm not going to go deeper. +1 to Pdvdh's theory because it didn't fail this test outright though.
No no, you're right, at equal charge weights the velocity DOES drop…I stated that I've been able, especially in more overbore rounds, to get higher velocity before seeing pressure signs BECAUSE y'all can go up in charge weight. Higher velocity sometimes, yes. At equal charge weights? Never.
I'll admit I misread that.