RockyMtnMT
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Sounds like you have accurate loads and dope that gets you to longer range. I think you are done. Ditch the Chrono and fine tune your ballistics data to match your drop data.
I would work on your reloading consistency before wondering if a temperature difference of 10 degrees over 2 weekends makes any velocity difference. Im curious what kind of scale are you using to measure your powder charges?Load B (eld/h4831) had been loaded for a long time, not annealed, and done when I knew less in general. so maybe there was some neck weld soaking up some pressure or something else. It was accurate at 500. Beer can accurate. But slower than before.
Load A (hammer/rl16) had been annealed, loaded, crimped, pulled, resized, reloaded, and recrimped with the same bullets and same powder. And it was 100fps or more different.
Yeah, I know you're right I just worry that I'm missing a big hunk of the picture if I'm that far off.I also believe you are overthinking this. The chrono is an optional tool that gets you in the ballpark. Your DOPE and multiple groups are the real concern here. If DOPE is repeatable/good and groups are beer can at 500, ignore that chrono.
Thankfully I was able to rule that out, pressure was the same at the same charge weight. Which is good in terms of lack of sensitivity I guessAs others have stated, could be chrono related but don't discount your initial suspicion….. temp. This past spring I worked up a CFE/51 gr Absolute load for my sporter weight CZ 223. Getting into the warmer summer months my Labradar has confirmed that speeds jump by 100fps when temp is over 75F and groups fell apart. Come back early in the cool of morning and the load returns to normal. Now trying to find the time to get a load that works in the summer. Will that load still work when it gets cold again? Only time will tell.