Component forecasting

Rig count has gone up by 8 since the war started.... 8 over 312. Still about 100 rigs less than pre-COVID.

Big part of this is the cash influx isn't happening. Some gas wells are coming back online, a lot of minimal pumpers got some benefit from the renewed marginal well credit (enough to pay the power bill at least), but this isn't a typical $100+ cycle because holes aren't going in left and right. SWD wells aren't raking it in like when the frackers were going full steam, and the tank haulers aren't running half at many miles are they were during the last cycle.

Go to Artesia, look at who's at work and who isn't. Go to Freer and Encinal and Dilly; Snyder and Rankin and Big Lake. Midland isn't doing what they used to do and throwing cash all across the Basin and the Eagle Ford. Hot shoters aren't running pipe and drill stem. Welders aren't buying new duallys. Gene Messer isn't rolling King Ranch F-250s off the lot to every new Betenbough home owner in Lubbock. It's not 2008 right now, this isn't the big pump we were waiting for in terms of putting new holes in ground.

For some reason fiscal sanity has come to the oil patch, and cash isn't getting thrown around to drill. People who already had holes are seeing the mailbox money go up, but the proof is in the IDC numbers coming out on 2021 K-1s, and there hasn't been a big surge yet in 2022 that I've seen.
 
QuietTexan said:
Rig count has gone up by 8 since the war started.... 8 over 312. Still about 100 rigs less than pre-COVID.

Big part of this is the cash influx isn't happening. Some gas wells are coming back online, a lot of minimal pumpers got some benefit from the renewed marginal well credit (enough to pay the power bill at least), but this isn't a typical $100+ cycle because holes aren't going in left and right. SWD wells aren't raking it in like when the frackers were going full steam, and the tank haulers aren't running half at many miles are they were during the last cycle.

Go to Artesia, look at who's at work and who isn't. Go to Freer and Encinal and Dilly; Snyder and Rankin and Big Lake. Midland isn't doing what they used to do. Hot shoters aren't running pipe and drill stem. Welders aren't buying new duallys. Gene Messer isn't rolling King Ranch F-250s off the lot to every new Betenbough home owner in Lubbock. It's not 2008 right now, this isn't the big pump we were waiting for in terms of putting new holes in ground.

For some reason fiscal sanity has come to the oil patch, and cash isn't getting thrown around to drill. People who already had holes are seeing the mailbox money go up, but the proof is in the IDC numbers coming out on 2021 K-1s, there hasn't been a big surge yet.
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You're asking a whole lot of investors and drillers in this environment to gamble they'll ever be able to produce a well dug during this emergency because of the administration's anti fossil fuel and anti fracking prejudice.

It's been over 20 years since we drilled the last well on our properties and even then for a shallow well under 1,000' it was a 250-500k project to get the job done, then you go on a waiting list for fracking to get maximum production.

There will be no mass rush to drill as a result unless oil prices go to such an extent that the risks no longer outweigh the possible rewards.
 
WildRose said:
If you cut off drilling, exploration and exploitation those industries and jobs disappear, worse, you immediately start falling behind both scientifically and technologically.


All formations eventually lose enough volume to no longer be profitable and at some point there's simply not enough recoverable gas left in a given hole or formation to even be viable anymore.

You are the benificiary of Fracking, a technology that has stalled in the 70's and only after the big crunch began on existing wells profitability it was revisited and new, much better fracking tech using high pressure waste water instead of explosives increased the existing recoverable supply by several orders of magnitude.

That industry will die as well under their plans.

In the end, no matter how to try to polish this gem of a theory, it leaves the US poorer, strangles industry, injects gross instability into the market and severely threatens our own national security.

Our ability to produce our own energy is what allowed us to win WWII, without it, the Asia Pacific region would be speaking Japanese and Europe's only language would be German.
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That's what I've been saying the United States can't compete with countries that can open a valve and have no lifting cost most of our wells are stripper wells that settle in to less than a barrel a day sure we have reserves that haven't been explored but we need a cushion I had a friend that worked in Saudi Arabia he said they plugged wells that made several thousand barrel a day and had burned a million barrels in test pits more than once you run this country out of oil we are doomed and they **** sure shouldn't be exporting it. David
 
WildRose said:
You're asking a whole lot of investors and drillers in this environment to gamble they'll ever be able to produce a well dug during this emergency because of the administration's anti fossil fuel and anti fracking prejudice.
Click to expand...
That's what I mean, the Midland cash isn't there right now. Fiscal restraint is the name of the game. They'll do work overs on a few holes, and they'll go replace a few pump jacks for the credits, and generally keep up appearances like oil is over $100, but the rush isn't there. None of the associated things that come with the good times are happening. This is a flash in the pan spike and there's no cash chasing the futures price right now.
 
Snowbird said:
With military contracts ramping up well still see thin supplies for the public for a while I'd guess. With that in mind, what do you expect to be plentiful in the near future.

What powders are the military currently contracting that may have plenty of leftovers or at least companies may skim off the top to sell to the public?

What cartridges are the military currently using? 308 became abundant for a reason. I'd imagine 223 rem/556 is still heavily used and I'm told 6.5 has been adopted recently.

Primers may be the crux of the whole situation here for reloaders. Do you expect larger primer manufacturers will be able to keep up with their contracts and supply to the public? Or do you expect the smaller manufacturers to be able to produce more for the public since they don't have a military contract?
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the military also adopted the 300prc in place of the 300wm& 338 lapel
 
I asked the best "insider" I know and the answer is "it will get worse".
0293F26B-09A3-4337-A4CE-E50DA12537E6.gif
 
Ucsdryder said:
I thought about this as well. I'm getting ready to downsize a bunch of powder and I'm tempted to hold it. How many rounds are being sent down range daily in Ukraine…how many are nato using daily for training exercises. I bet the number is mind blowing.

18 months ago primers and powder were 30-40 per thousand and pound. Now primers are 100/thousand. Seems like powder might head the same direction.
Click to expand...
the small arms ammo we are shipping to Ukraine are 2 million rounds. probably 7.62x39.
 
orkan said:
Good. Worse is the only thing that seems to humble people enough to turn to God and stop acting worldly.
Click to expand...
This may not be too popular but you're on track.

Worship of men and ourselves has lead to many of our troubles.

As an old commander of mine reminded us before every op, "We do this not for personal gain or glory but for our God, our Brothers in Arms, and The United States of America, God Bless the USA."

Further discussion probably needs to go some place for philosophy and religion discussions.
 

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