Want To Buy Are Reloading Retailers and Manufacturers Worried about Recession or Just Demand?

[grouse]

People buy more than they can afford every day with 1.14 trillion credit card debt in the US. But, I see our point - our economy has been declining for a while but it is being hidden as much as possible.

There are obviously those that still have discretionary money. I suggest using some of that now since it is going to go up.

Their charging things like food, rent and gas.

 

[southpa]

These companies are controlling everything. It has less to do with your demand. They produce half as much and charge double. Simple math. Unfortunately covid created that. Look at what a pound of powder costs now. $60-$75 a pound out the door. I've watched a particular 8 pounder sit on a shelf for the last 6 months listed at $380. Just today it went up to $460. You buy less, they make less and charge more.

 

[Mrvmax]

Their charging things like food, rent and gas.

That is some of it, but be honest. Most of America lives beyond their means and does it through credit. It is not all food, rent and gas.

 

[Veteran]

Production of reloading components and ammunition were severely impacted during COVID, and when combined with all that stimulus money had lots of $$ chasing very limited inventory... so prices went up. (Inflations is always caused by too much money chasing too few goods and is created by increasing the amount of money in circulation.) Production has ramped up, people are out of stimulus $$ and have run up the credit cards, and aren't buying. Unemployment is higher than is being reported because a lot of people couldn't find f/t jobs and are now working gig jobs (Uber, more than one p/t job, etc.) for low wages. This number is reflected in the U6 unemployment rate (people who are unemployed or underemployed but not drawing unemployment and many of whom have given up on finding a full-time job with benefits) but the news media touts the U3 rate (everyone unemployed and actively looking as reflected by unemployment payments). As of August 2024, the U3 was 4.4% (not seasonally adjusted), while the U6 is 8%!

We are on the verge of a significant recession; unemployment is a lagging indicator. The good thing is, prices will drop (deflation) because of the bad thing... the majority will not be able to afford unnecessary purchases (and many won't be able to afford even necessary purchases). Even now, people at the mean (average) income level have had to curtail spending due to inflation.

Yeppers, I believe you done did yur homework.

 

[ObiJohn]

These companies are controlling everything. It has less to do with your demand. They produce half as much and charge double. Simple math. Unfortunately covid created that. Look at what a pound of powder costs now. $60-$75 a pound out the door. I've watched a particular 8 pounder sit on a shelf for the last 6 months listed at $380. Just today it went up to $460. You buy less, they make less and charge more.

We can believe in the evil/greedy capitalists theory but it was created by politicians as an excuse for their flawed policies that cause the problem. That people buy into it rather than holding politicians accountable for their failures is dismaying.

Businesses exist to make money. The powder companies want to make money, know that people who choose between equivalent products buy the cheaper one, and if Alliant could sell a pound of powder for $1 cheaper than Hodgen, they would do it. They all have the same regulatory overhead, same payroll expenses, same raw ingredients (mostly oil-based) costs. Anyone checked where oil is today versus 2019? And, they're not going to produce massive volumes that they can't quickly sell, because the tax laws punish thrm severely for carrying excess inventory of finished goods. If you've ever owned a small business, would you have ordered a year's worth of inventory, or would you buy a month's worth at most? I can tell you that, based on taking a gun shop from $770K sales and 15% gross margins to $2.4M and 36% margins in 5 years that inventory turn is critical to business survival. I learned to never have more than a month's worth of sales in inventory because doing so killed profitability.

That store stuck with the 8 lb keg, if it is the same keg, hasn't learned to get off old inventory and put the money into something that will turn more quickly. I only stocked 1 lb units at a higher than mail order price because of the convenience to customers of having it now and not paying shipping and hazmat, would order 8 lbs at a good customer price if they paid in advance so the turn was instant, and knew I couldn't compete back then with the Grafs and Natchez's on bulk reloading supplies. Today, with the increases in shipping costs retail stores can't. I used to drive a couple of hours to a distributor to pick up pallets of ammo, reloading supplies, and guns to save hundreds on shipping and hazmat fees... the only way I could stock powder and primers at a reasonable price (got the other stuff because I was up there already).

Business is a dog eat dog world, and small businesses can't survive on small margins, not with an uninvited senior partner who invests nothing, takes a chunk of money off the top, makes you pay them for each employee, and limits your ability to make a profit.