What is the temp of a bullet as it exits the muzzle? I'm really curious about the melting theory,
if you pass a bullet held in pliers through an acetylene flame it would take a few seconds for anything to happen, by comparison that's a looong time.
We all tend to think it's the jackets fault, no one thinks about the consequences of inclusions in the core.
When it exits the muzzle, the bullet does not have a uniform temperature, but the places where the lands were in contact are hotter than the rest, a lot hotter.
There is several hundred foot pounds of work done by friction between the bore and the bullet as the bullet is pushed through. This work done by friction heats both the bullet and the bore. One needs to estimate the division of the heating between the bore and the bullet, but a 50/50 split would not be unreasonable.
So, suppose there is 400 ft lbs of work done by friction, half of which (200 ft lbs) heats the copper jacket along the bearing surface, and which tends to be focused where the lands engage the jacket. It's a simple physics problem (if you know the thickness of the jacket and other dimensions along with the heat capacity of the jacket) to estimate the temperature change to the jacket.
Berger paid an MIT modeling group to do all this more precisely, and they determined that the jacket and the underlying lead can be heated above the melting point of lead under certain conditions. These computations suggested that making the jacket thicker would solve the problem, because the thicker jacket would reduce the amount of heating reaching the lead. In an experiment with thicker jackets, Berger observed that the problem was solved with the thicker jackets but could be reproduced with the thinner jackets in certain rifles.
Now, this was a great experiment and elegant approach to solving the problem Berger was seeing in their bullets. But it does not eliminate the possibility of inclusions or melting plastic tips being the culprit in some cases. However, being that the predictions of the calculations were confirmed in careful experiments, Berger's work raises the melting lead idea to the realm of a tested theory; whereas, the melting plastic tip and inclusion ideas are untested hypotheses.