SOLD/EXPIRED Are Reloading Retailers and Manufacturers Worried about Recession or Just Demand?

Looks to me like the market for primers is at a downward inflection point. Maybe Powder too.

Primers are down from $169 to 180
peak to $89 to 119 range and a lot more plentiful lately.

Federals have become more available last several months and at lower prices, lots of Remington and Winchester too.

Lots of promotions almost daily for free shipping, free hazmat, or 10% off too.

Either the stores holding inventory or the manufacturers or both are worried about recession, or they are seeing a lack of demand due to the squeeze inflation has wreaked on consumers or they have over supplied the market. But something is going on.

Prices are dropping. Stuff is staying on the shelves.

Gunbroker sure aint makin no sales
at $180 for primers....

The hard part for me is knowing when to stock up on supplies I use all the time and things I would like. to try. You would need a crystal ball. The only thing I know for sure is that if I want the price and availability of an item to go lower, all I have to do is purchase what I will need of it for the next couple years, and bam the price will start dropping and it will be available everywhere

don't kid yourself.... the so called inflation wave has been induced mostly by record profit margins driven by demand. Those margins always slowly correct vs how fast they go up.

There is some competing demand from nato orders in the eu picking up steam, but that was a small market share impact in the us for brands like alliant and viht.

Are is not to reason why ours is but to buy and buy or is that "buy and cry?"

It's simple supply and demand. This drives price more than anything. Prices are dictated by what the market will accept.

People have no money. The quantity and quality of bargain rifles on this forum is an indicator. Everything is sitting unless it's basement pricing

Firearm related sales are down industry wide, I would suggest buying all you can now to take advantage of it. I am seeing AR's in the high 300's wholesale now - it has been a while since I have seen that. Firearm distributors are marking down select inventory at a rate I have not seen in the last 14 years. It will not last, all it takes it the wrong person to get elected or talk of gun confiscation. Get it while the getting is good.

Mrvmax said:

Firearm related sales are down industry wide, I would suggest buying all you can now to take advantage of it. I am seeing AR's in the high 300's wholesale now - it has been a while since I have seen that. Firearm distributors are marking down select inventory at a rate I have not seen in the last 14 years. It will not last, all it takes it the wrong person to get elected or talk of gun confiscation. Get it while the getting is good.

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People can't buy things they can't afford.

Veteran said:

Looks to me like the market for primers is at a downward inflection point. Maybe Powder too.

Primers are down from $169 to 180
peak to $89 to 119 range and a lot more plentiful lately.

Federals have become more available last several months and at lower prices, lots of Remington and Winchester too.

Lots of promotions almost daily for free shipping, free hazmat, or 10% off too.

Either the stores holding inventory or the manufacturers or both are worried about recession, or they are seeing a lack of demand due to the squeeze inflation has wreaked on consumers or they have over supplied the market. But something is going on.

Prices are dropping. Stuff is staying on the shelves.

Gunbroker sure aint makin no sales
at $180 for primers....

Click to expand...

I agree, it has tapered off and going down.
I guess the most people have enough stock piled up....till after the election.

I agree with Grouse. I don't think we will see the huge spike even if the wrong people get in office because of money. Our average customers are spending less but high end items are still moving normally. Used is another story I keep finding deals I can't refuse when I mean to sell.

grouse said:

People can't buy things they can't afford.

Click to expand...

People buy more than they can afford every day with 1.14 trillion credit card debt in the US. But, I see our point - our economy has been declining for a while but it is being hidden as much as possible.

There are obviously those that still have discretionary money. I suggest using some of that now since it is going to go up.

stazmania said:

Are is not to reason why ours is but to buy and buy or is that "buy and cry?"

Click to expand...

I have been noticing it too. Went to my local shop today owned by a really good dude whom I like to give business to. Was looking for Longshot for 1 1/4 oz heavy game loads I want to load. At $47/lb I couldn't justify it. I ended up ordering what I needed at Midway for $40/lb and split the hazmat charge with my uncle for some of his stuff. I see a LOT of primers on sale for $60 to $90 and the stock is plentiful. Considering we are 40 days from election day with a high risk candidate, it makes you wonder just how messed up our economy is.

I recall in 2012 when people were paying $1500-$2000 for a basic AR15 and then 2 years later they were trying to dump them for $600. We are seeing the start of that. $60+ for a lb of powder is ridiculous. But people pay it. I have paid it. You can tell the market is severely slowing down with all of that and people aren't sure what will happen.

Production of reloading components and ammunition were severely impacted during COVID, and when combined with all that stimulus money had lots of $$ chasing very limited inventory... so prices went up. (Inflations is always caused by too much money chasing too few goods and is created by increasing the amount of money in circulation.) Production has ramped up, people are out of stimulus $$ and have run up the credit cards, and aren't buying. Unemployment is higher than is being reported because a lot of people couldn't find f/t jobs and are now working gig jobs (Uber, more than one p/t job, etc.) for low wages. This number is reflected in the U6 unemployment rate (people who are unemployed or underemployed but not drawing unemployment and many of whom have given up on finding a full-time job with benefits) but the news media touts the U3 rate (everyone unemployed and actively looking as reflected by unemployment payments). As of August 2024, the U3 was 4.4% (not seasonally adjusted), while the U6 is 8%!

We are on the verge of a significant recession; unemployment is a lagging indicator. The good thing is, prices will drop (deflation) because of the bad thing... the majority will not be able to afford unnecessary purchases (and many won't be able to afford even necessary purchases). Even now, people at the mean (average) income level have had to curtail spending due to inflation.