You can never be 100% certain...

[LRNut]

As is typical of my day, I started out shooting at my 910 yard gong. I often wait for the wind to blow to make it a bit challenging, but got the itch to pull the trigger. Got out my Savage Lapua. Wind was nearly calm at my shooting site (a lighter flame was bending both way but mostly to the right). No vegetation was moving downrange, not even grass. No mirage drift through my spotter at various magnifications up to 70X. Figured I would hold 1/2 MOA left for spin. Checked for any mirage using my parallax (NF scope), held 1/2 MOA left, and pulled the trigger. Saw dirt fly but no "dong." MV (I shoot with a LabRadar since I am shooting next to the house) was right there. Figured it might have been the rifle. Switched to a Stiller Predator in .338 Lapua. Same conditions, same hold, missed the 24" gong. Decided to shoot my Edge, but this time make a video using my spotter iPhone adapter. Same conditions, same hold. MV was right where I have it in my SIG ABS. Missed gong. I honestly expected to see a wind from the right but the video clearly showed it missing the gong just to the right. A wind hold of 2 MOA would have resulted in a center hit. FWIW, a 2 MOA wind has always been pretty obvious at this location: my anemometer shows it, my wind flag stuck in front of my position shows it (typically a 45 deg angle), and the trees and grass downrange are moving due to wind. None of these were true today. And to reiterate, I get to shoot EVERY single day, in all kinds of conditions.

Before you say I simply missed three times, my hit rate on the gong itself has been 100%, with 92% of my shots hitting within 5" of center if my wind hold is 1 MOA or less (first shot only; no follow-ups). My bullet is traveling over a small valley/draw to impact on the mountain behind my house, which means the actual wind is always greater than at my position. I can only conclude there was a weird wind blowing to the right through the center of the valley that wasn't present at my location or at the gong.

It might not be 1000 yards, but 910 is close. This lesson taught me no matter how confident you feel about the conditions, at long range, weird stuff can happen. If that was an elk instead of a gong, it would have been gut shot.

 

[LRNut]

To follow up...

A few hours later I took a poke with my 28N. Wind looked like about 6 mph (mirage); vegetation around me was moving but bigger trees were not. I had a bit of "last miss bias" but resisted and held 1.25 MOA left for wind. Hit .5 MOA left.

Just now, I took a shot with my Savage Lapua. At first wind as right to left, then switched the other way (it does that all the time in the mountains of CO). Mirage was flat but not too fast. I didn't bother entering wind in my SIG; experience with that wind is a 2 MOA hold. Bullet hit less than .5 MOA right albeit about 1/2 MOA high.

I still have no idea what happened this morning. Weirdest thing I have experienced in a long time.

 

[Hela52]

The shooting gods must be trying to keep you humble!

 

[LRNut]

The shooting gods must be trying to keep you humble!

Well, they did! I head back to AZ in 11 days; as much as shooting every day in CO is nice, the conditions I have here (at least in the summer - winter winds are much more stable and consistent minute to minute) are far more difficult than in the AZ desert.

 

[Alex Wheeler]

I was out 2 weeks ago, zero wind at the shooting position and no mirage in the scope. There was 2 minutes of wind at 1000 yds and zero way to know that. No mirage to read. We shoot 3-4 times a week there and have a good handle on it too. The more you shoot the less confident you become at those ranges imo.

 

[dfanonymous]

The wind is actually at max ordnance, and is in a totally different gradient altogether. So looking at vegetation alone is not always going to work.

Mirage, as I've said before is better for wind direction. ALONE, it's not accurate enough to be precise at 1000y if the target is smaller than say the side of a shed. I mean is the squiggly line 7, 8, 9 mph?? It makes a difference if it's your only information.

A kestrel will tell you TO THE MPH the wind at you're position. That's 1/3 of the solution given to you. It sets a baseline for the rest of the target solution.

Understanding terrain features is useful for when you're not sure about those 0 wind shots at LR and more specifically at ELR distances. It's rarely 0 mph across the board. There's always a wind.
Terrain features act as a funnel for wind. If you imagine the wind flowing like water, you can imagine what the wind is doing.

Hunters, specifically if you're like me and hunt exclusively in western states, should be familiar with thermals changes in wind. In the morning the cold air is pushing wind down the mountain, in the late morning/noon, the ground heats up and wind goes up the mountain. It's possible to have a thermal wind shift but a dominate wind be up in a higher gradient. You'll notice this hunting peaks above the tree line.

This is common information in weather theory for pilots. Hope this helps some of you.

 

[Reemty J]

Wind is definitely the wild card

 

[LRNut]

"Mirage, as I've said before is better for wind direction. ALONE, it's not accurate enough to be precise at 1000y if the target is smaller than say the side of a shed. I mean is the squiggly line 7, 8, 9 mph?? It makes a difference if it's your only information."

Actually, if I can see mirage I can estimate the wind a lot better than the 1/3 solution a Kestrel gives me. The problem is, it isn't always there.

IME, once the sun poke up, the wind starts to move away from the sun. Not very fast, but if it is otherwise calm, that is what I normally see. But yesterday there was none.

Imagining what wind is doing based on terrain is not a firing solution, especially not to within 1 mph which is what you ought to have if shooting at animal at 1000 yards (1 mph wind pushes a 195 Berger 4" at 1000 yards). Every day I get up and shoot. Up until yesterday, most days with zero wind, zero mirage, no visible signs of vegetation moving meant a hit if I dialed in 1/2 MOA. Most days at mid-morning, there is detectable wind at my site and mirage showing. Yesterday there was neither, and I still had 2 MOA. Same terrain yesterday as the days, weeks, and months before.

So exactly how are you estimating wind within 1 mph if you don't use mirage? You are not doing it with a Kestrel...

 

[cohunt]

Soon, you may be able to be 100% sure-- with the advance of LIDAR laser range finders, they use the laser (and some use radar) to calculate the wind vector ( direction and speed) to your target then send that info to a ballistic calculator and give you an overall wind correction to your target.

 

[jpfrog]

@LRNut the solution is simple and someone with your experience should know it. I'm disappointing you didn't immediately put your rifles back in the safe and exchange them for a 6.5 Creed. This is clearly the tool that would have gotten the job done!

All kidding aside, excellent write up and thank you for sharing. Very informative for those that, like me, spend 99% of our time away from the mountains and elevation and don't experience these things. Sure, we have plenty of wind in TX, but it's different.

 

[dfanonymous]

"Mirage, as I've said before is better for wind direction. ALONE, it's not accurate enough to be precise at 1000y if the target is smaller than say the side of a shed. I mean is the squiggly line 7, 8, 9 mph?? It makes a difference if it's your only information."

Actually, if I can see mirage I can estimate the wind a lot better than the 1/3 solution a Kestrel gives me. The problem is, it isn't always there.

IME, once the sun poke up, the wind starts to move away from the sun. Not very fast, but if it is otherwise calm, that is what I normally see. But yesterday there was none.

Imagining what wind is doing based on terrain is not a firing solution, especially not to within 1 mph which is what you ought to have if shooting at animal at 1000 yards (1 mph wind pushes a 195 Berger 4" at 1000 yards). Every day I get up and shoot. Up until yesterday, most days with zero wind, zero mirage, no visible signs of vegetation moving meant a hit if I dialed in 1/2 MOA. Most days at mid-morning, there is detectable wind at my site and mirage showing. Yesterday there was neither, and I still had 2 MOA. Same terrain yesterday as the days, weeks, and months before.

So exactly how are you estimating wind within 1 mph if you don't use mirage? You are not doing it with a Kestrel...

You missed the quoting me.

You say you can, but when it comes to first round impacts at these ranges on any given day it's not what I see in the real world. It's not what any professional shooter does. It's not what the military teaches.

It doesn't work by itself.

I never said I don't use mirage. I said not by itself. Again, even if you the little reference card
It's a range of wind. As you get more wind, you get more broad of a range. If you're off by 1 mph at say 1000y, you off by at least .2 mils or about 7 inches with a good .308.
Not horrible but not great. Target size dependent.

But that depends on wind being constant, and it's not constant. So even if you time the shot, you can expect that 7 inches to be more like 7-9 inches as assuming you shoot 1/16 moa. Lol

So again, I know for a fact that you're not making first round hits at a 10 inch target (human head) beyond 1000y with mirage alone. Especially with wind that exist out west here.

Yes, the kestrel will give you a base line of wind at your location to THE MPH. That's 1/3 of the solution. That takes the guess work out of that.

Where the art comes into play is the rest of the 2/3. Is the center range wind the same as wind at your position? If the mirage shows the same direction and about the same speed then I'll use the kestrel's wind and move on to the the target wind. However, usually there are other issues more advanced shooting over a depression, where you might worry about an updraft depending on the primary wind direction.

The target is where your mirage is more useful, especially at the mile and two
miles shooting competitions this is more critical.
Verifying wind direction and getting a estimate on wind speed using mirage, vegetation (note), terrain and compared to you're baseline with the kestrel. After that, a lot comes down to experience.

The terrain does matter because if you're not use to shooting in a single area, and you don't have mirage to rely on, more tools and understanding is useful to figure out what wind is doing closer to the target and the mid range. You're comparing being on a mountain side you never been on, to a range condition that you have immense experience with…that's not what I'm talking about.

Note on vegetation, I would know where you are and how vegetation moves. A good way for those that have time is to go to predominate brush and measure it with the kestrel while looking at how it moves, and maybe write it down on a notepad. A Joshua tree moves pretty much not a all compared to bitter brush at 10 mph.

 

[LRNut]

Soon, you may be able to be 100% sure-- with the advance of LIDAR laser range finders, they use the laser (and some use radar) to calculate the wind vector ( direction and speed) to your target then send that info to a ballistic calculator and give you an overall wind correction to your targ

You missed the quoting me.

You say you can, but when it comes to first round impacts at these ranges on any given day it's not what I see in the real world. It's not what any professional shooter does. It's not what the military teaches.

It doesn't work by itself.

I never said I don't use mirage. I said not by itself. Again, even if you the little reference cardView attachment 295172
It's a range of wind. As you get more wind, you get more broad of a range. If you're off by 1 mph at say 1000y, you off by at least .2 mils or about 7 inches with a good .308. LRNUT: totally agree
Not horrible but not great. Target size dependent.

But that depends on wind being constant, and it's not constant. So even if you time the shot, you can expect that 7 inches to be more like 7-9 inches as assuming you shoot 1/16 moa. Lol LRNUT: again, I totally agree. You can take a Kestrel and hold it up and get a 1 mph per second wind variation quite often - it is never constant

So again, I know for a fact that you're not making first round hits at a 10 inch target (human head) beyond 1000y with mirage alone. Especially with wind that exist out west here. LRNUT: I measure the wind with an anemometer, but what it measures at my site is never the total wind deflection - here in CO or in AZ for the simple fact to see something at 1000 yards means there must be a lot of terrain between you and the target at a lower elevation. Typically, I add 50% to 100% to that reading depending on the terrain.

Yes, the kestrel will give you a base line of wind at your location to THE MPH. That's 1/3 of the solution. That takes the guess work out of that. LRNUT: see last comment.

Where the art comes into play is the rest of the 2/3. Is the center range wind the same as wind at your position? If the mirage shows the same direction and about the same speed then I'll use the kestrel's wind and move on to the the target wind. However, usually there are other issues more advanced shooting over a depression, where you might worry about an updraft depending on the primary wind direction. LRNUT: The big problem with mirage is that it is often difficult to see if you are shooting over a large depression.

The target is where your mirage is more useful, especially at the mile and two
miles shooting competitions this is more critical. LRNUT: I would agree; easier to see as well since the ground is right there.
Verifying wind direction and getting a estimate on wind speed using mirage, vegetation (note), terrain and compared to you're baseline with the kestrel. After that, a lot comes down to experience.

The terrain does matter because if you're not use to shooting in a single area, and you don't have mirage to rely on, more tools and understanding is useful to figure out what wind is doing closer to the target and the mid range. You're comparing being on a mountain side you never been on, to a range condition that you have immense experience with…that's not what I'm talking about. LRNUT: not sure what you mean about "mountain I have never been on" I shoot this place every day, but also shoot in other locations, especially in AZ. To your point, I have said often on this site if your only LR experience is on a range or a single place, you are deluding yourself - you absolutely learn the nuances of a place when you shoot every day.

Note on vegetation, I would know where you are and how vegetation moves. A good way for those that have time is to go to predominate brush and measure it with the kestrel while looking at how it moves, and maybe write it down on a notepad. A Joshua tree moves pretty much not a all compared to bitter brush at 10 mph. LRNUT: I agree with this as well. In the desert of AZ, it takes a very strong wind to move anything.

My comments appear in your quote. The point of my original post was meant to illustrate what appeared to be a windless condition was anything but, ostensibly due to a wind blowing down the valley/depression between me and the target. So much for taking a 1200 yard shot at an elk, then, right?

 

[dfanonymous]

My comments appear in your quote. The point of my original post was meant to illustrate what appeared to be a windless condition was anything but, ostensibly due to a wind blowing down the valley/depression between me and the target. So much for taking a 1200 yard shot at an elk, then, right?

To clarify, a mountain you've never been on, I mean when any of us are shooting in unfamiliar areas, vs a range we are use to where the winds are. It sounds like you got and agree with my point, as we agree with deluding ones ability to to get better by shooting in one fixed place.
Sorry, I wasn't talking about a mountain YOU in particular hadn't been on.

 

[Shane Lindsey]

Are you getting chillier mornings than what has been the norm as the fall approaches?

Could it be warmer air off the ground from sun warming it as it is hitting the cooler air about 10-15' above?