Wind estimation and accuracy of estimation over the flight path

[Barbourcreek]

So if it's not raining, which is usually isn't in most places, and you don't have mirage because of low light, range, or terrain you're just SOL then?

How do you discern a 15 mph mirage from a 30 mph if someone is novice enough to ask on a forum?

No
Wind meter I the last resort or ultrasonic wind meter.

Mirage and rain is perfect for terrain
Rain can be used to 52 mph

Mirage is only good to 9 mph

 

[dfanonymous]

No
Wind meter I the last resort or ultrasonic wind meter.

I know.
My point it's not fair to them if you're going let the OP keep the no wind meter assertion and only sell you sell your stuff for certain situations.

It's wishful thinking that it's raining or have good mirage when I'm shooting from one hill to another over trees in a valley. or it being under 12 mph.

You have to really have to know it all to be a good in the wind.

That's why I tell them to get a kestrel, because it's literally the closest you'll get to 1/3 the solution in most situations. It's how it's done in PRS, smutting uxo, spotter carry, and events like ko2m.

I'm not here to get in the way of you doing your thing, but the OP over simplified the question in what is arguably the hardest part of long range shooting.

 

[Barbourcreek]

I know.
My point it's not fair to them if you're going let the OP keep the no wind meter assertion and only sell you sell your stuff for certain situations.

You have to really have to know it all to be a good in the wind.

That's why I tell them to get a kestrel, because it's literally the closest you'll get to 1/3 the solution in most situations. It's how it's done in PRS, smutting uxo, spotter carry, and events like ko2m.

I'm not here to get in the way of you doing your thing, but the OP over simplified the question in what is arguably the hardest part of long range shooting.

I teach them how to use the wind meter
I give them all the tools
I don't want them using it as a crutch

Mirage and rain if available is much more accurate

So yes I have them get a weather flow or kestrel 2700 or ultrasonic but when training we don't use it on the range if we have the others

My app testers PRS squads don't even pull out the wind meter any more unless they have high winds

Anyway there is a time for a wind meter no doubt but it is not what I prefer when the others are available

 

[med358-boise]

I know.
My point it's not fair to them if you're going let the OP keep the no wind meter assertion and only sell you sell your stuff for certain situations.

It's wishful thinking that it's raining or have good mirage when I'm shooting from one hill to another over trees in a valley. or it being under 12 mph.

You have to really have to know it all to be a good in the wind.

That's why I tell them to get a kestrel, because it's literally the closest you'll get to 1/3 the solution in most situations. It's how it's done in PRS, smutting uxo, spotter carry, and events like ko2m.

I'm not here to get in the way of you doing your thing, but the OP over simplified the question in what is arguably the hardest part of long range shooting.

dfanonymous,

I am not trying to over simplify the solution. I was simply trying to limit the 37 typical responses of "get a Kestrel XXXX with no other information". I wanted to really understand the non-windmeter part.

My whole purpose for asking the question is I understand how important the wind is and how difficult itis to be good at it.

 

[Barbourcreek]

dfanonymous,

I am not trying to over simplify the solution. I was simply trying to limit the 37 typical responses of "get a Kestrel XXXX" or other device. I wanted to really understand the non-windmeter part.

I understand that is what I was going for mirage and rain is great when you understand it

We all know the wind meter, as that is what is taught by most schools but you need to learn the other ENVIRONMENTAL's as discussed I hope my answer somewhat helps

 

[dfanonymous]

I teach them how to use the wind meter
I give them all the tools
I don't want them using it as a crutch

Mirage and rain if available is much more accurate

So yes I have them get a weather flow or kestrel 2700 or ultrasonic but when training we don't use it on the range if we have the others

My app testers PRS squads don't even pull out the wind meter any more unless they have high winds

Anyway there is a time for a wind meter no doubt but it is not what I prefer when the others are available

I live and hunt out west. There's hardly any rain when looking at 365 days in the year.

It's almost always over 12 mph by 12 pm.
What I don't like is when people turn around and think that as typical conditions and then come on here and say "it's impossible" or even worst is the "mirage is the only way."

As far as competing, I don't know who your guys are but if they have sponsor jerseys, most squads are running set ups like this as dumb as it looks.

As far as real world work, we use kestrels as the primary solver. Given ABs .gov contract. The same tactics between spotter shooter still exist. Everyone here as a sniper for " DOS" is some type of SFSC level 1/2 or equivalent. So those tactics with the kestrel roll over. I get not using it as a crutch but it's a good piece of proven kit.

dfanonymous,

I am not trying to over simplify the solution. I was simply trying to limit the 37 typical responses of "get a Kestrel XXXX with no other information". I wanted to really understand the non-windmeter part.

My whole purpose for asking the question is I understand how important the wind is and how difficult itis to be good at it.

I said you're over simplifying the question.
Meaning that there's more to it than just the mirage. There's like a whole process that's being left out.

I could think of 100 different scenerios, but if you have wind at the shooter going one way, a mid field flight going another way and a harder wind at the target…all over 15 mph…what are you doing…? Going home?

 

[Barbourcreek]

I live and hunt out west. There's hardly any rain when looking at 365 days in the year.

It's almost always over 12 mph by 12 pm.
What I don't like is when people turn around and think that as typical conditions and then come on here and say "it's impossible" or even worst is the "mirage is the only way."

As far as competing, I don't know who your guys are but if they have sponsor jerseys, most squads are running set ups like this as dumb as it looks.View attachment 633372

As far as real world work, we use kestrels as the primary solver. Given ABs .gov contract. The same tactics between spotter shooter still exist. Everyone here as a sniper for " DOS" is some type of SFSC level 1/2 or equivalent. So those tactics with the kestrel roll over. I get not using it as a crutch but it's a good piece of proven kit.

I said you're over simplifying the question.
Meaning that there's more to it than just the mirage. There's like a whole process that's being left out.

I could think of 100 different scenerios, but if you have wind at the shooter going one way, a mid field flight going another way and a harder wind at the target…all over 15 mph…what are you doing…? Going home?

Again that was not the question from the the poster he wanted to know about other than wind meter

Stick with what you know
I also lived out west Wyoming been there done it
26 years military sniper billet and 5th SFG sniper course grad as well as B4 I get it.

Wind meter has its place mirage and rain have its.

Wind meter is easy use but learn the other 2 and get more diversified in your wind.

 

[med358-boise]

I live and hunt out west. There's hardly any rain when looking at 365 days in the year.

It's almost always over 12 mph by 12 pm.
What I don't like is when people turn around and think that as typical conditions and then come on here and say "it's impossible" or even worst is the "mirage is the only way."

As far as competing, I don't know who your guys are but if they have sponsor jerseys, most squads are running set ups like this as dumb as it looks.View attachment 633372

As far as real world work, we use kestrels as the primary solver. Given ABs .gov contract. The same tactics between spotter shooter still exist. Everyone here as a sniper for " DOS" is some type of SFSC level 1/2 or equivalent. So those tactics with the kestrel roll over. I get not using it as a crutch but it's a good piece of proven kit.

I said you're over simplifying the question.
Meaning that there's more to it than just the mirage. There's like a whole process that's being left out.

I could think of 100 different scenerios, but if you have wind at the shooter going one way, a mid field flight going another way and a harder wind at the target…all over 15 mph…what are you doing…? Going home?

I understand that, just wanted to focus on one part for the moment.

 

[comfisherman]

I could think of 100 different scenerios, but if you have wind at the shooter going one way, a mid field flight going another way and a harder wind at the target…all over 15 mph…what are you doing…? Going home?

We did some testing of wind variation on some shot flight paths, was eye opening like your scenario. My take away was that's why we still launch heavy sleek bullets from absurdly overbore cartridges. On a near homogeneous long sandy beach with very few terrain features the slow predictable mild cartridges hung with the 100plus grain monsters flinging heavy sleek pills. Swap to the same range but cutting across three ravine ridges with more than a 10mph variation and as much as 20 degree angle difference... that's why ultramag.

As good as I'd like to become at reading wind, the Kirby allen type wildcats cover a multitude of errors.

 

[dfanonymous]

I understand that, just wanted to focus on one part for the moment.

My mistake.
You mentioned accuracy % and self imposed "no shoot" limitations, so I assumed you were actually wanted to learn wind, and not just mirage reading.

Because again, it's not just a one thing. This isn't a me vs James thing, I know he knows what he's talking about.

We did some testing of wind variation on some shot flight paths, was eye opening like your scenario. My take away was that's why we still launch heavy sleek bullets from absurdly overbore cartridges. On a near homogeneous long sandy beach with very few terrain features the slow predictable mild cartridges hung with the 100plus grain monsters flinging heavy sleek pills. Swap to the same range but cutting across three ravine ridges with more than a 10mph variation and as much as 20 degree angle difference... that's why ultramag.

As good as I'd like to become at reading wind, the Kirby allen type wildcats cover a multitude of errors.

From a hunters standpoint point, I get it. If you can defeat the wind with a bullet that can over come the typical distance you plan to hunt, then for sure that's another tool in the box.

The issue is when you're trying to actually be good, your hit probability goes down the longer the TOF, and the smaller the target, in which case you need to be as accurate to the MPH in each 3rd of the field is detrimental in my experience. It can be quite the complexity which of course makes it easier said than done.

 

[med358-boise]

My mistake.
You mentioned accuracy % and self imposed "no shoot" limitations, so I assumed you were actually wanted to learn wind, and not just mirage reading.

Because again, it's not just a one thing. This isn't a me vs James thing, I know he knows what he's talking about.

From a hunters standpoint point, I get it. If you can defeat the wind with a bullet that can over come the typical distance you plan to hunt, then for sure that's another tool in the box.

The issue is when you're trying to actually be good, your hit probability goes down the longer the TOF, and the smaller the target, in which case you need to be as accurate to the MPH in each 3rd of the field is detrimental in my experience. It can be quite the complexity which of course makes it easier said than done.

Very much want to learn wind. Similarly to many curriculum, I chose to take a conceptually "daily" approach and I happened to choose mirage as "today's subject".

I also asked about what are people's level of proficiency/definition of "good at wind" is to set my expectations for the "greater process".

I also asked about rules of thumb to illicit two items: 1) similarly to overall expectations, is there a common understanding of "yeah no matter what, your just not going to have a good "hit rate" with X conditions @ Y yardages and 2) if a common response of "when the Z situation arises, I really limit how far I shoot" and if Z is previously unknown to me its a FBI clue; better go learn more about Z.

Already learned something from you, Great Grandad, and comfisherman I had not really thought about and were not part of my original question, so a bonus.

 

[dfanonymous]

Very much want to learn wind. Similarly to many curriculum, I chose to take a conceptually "daily" approach and I happened to choose mirage as "today's subject".

I also asked about what are people's level of proficiency/definition of "good at wind" is to set my expectations for the "greater process".

I also asked about rules of thumb to illicit two items: 1) similarly to overall expectations, is there a common understanding of "yeah no matter what, your just not going to have a good "hit rate" with X conditions @ Y yardages and 2) if a common response of "when the Z situation arises, I really limit how far I shoot" and if Z is previously unknown to me its a FBI clue; better go learn more about Z.

Already learned something from you, Great Grandad, and comfisherman I had not really thought about and were not part of my original question, so a bonus.

Ok. Sorry.

 

[Zen Archery]

Practice, practice, practice! Get out in the best and worst conditions and practice. Most of all take a lot of notes.

 

[Barbourcreek]

To answer the original question
Mirage is extremely accurate when you know where to read it and how to convert it

Unfortunately most don't, the systems out there are antiquated and down right in accurate for mirage

We my (students) use mirage in level 2 class in valleys and hills out to 1610 yards.

Knowing where to look is a big factor

Knowing angle and wave tightness is another.