A pic of the target would really help. If a bullet is coming apart and keyholing, it would have a leading or trailing edge, a hook so to speak, visible on paper. When it happened it would have been the perfect opportunity to shoot a farther distance, this would eliminate stability vs failure.
This works, if indeed your barrel twist is correct:
https://bergerbullets.com/twist-rate-calculator/
Without seeing the target, I am betting that there is an inclusion in the barrel causing enough buildup to destroy jacket. Get so many decent shots, then goes south.
A good clean, a borescope, some ammo and a trip to the range, fire 5, scope, fire 5 more, scope, repeat, a bad spot generating problems will surface, I think a novice could see it, things get dirty quick after a bullet passes that spot.
If it is this, it can be as easy as marking the spot and working that area over with JB paste, may take a couple trips.
EDIT: In theory, if this is the issue, you may be able to feel this with a cleaning rod.