Re read you original post. Your chrono not reading is a problem. But you need to check the actual speed at 7F degrees. Hard to believe it is -200fps.
Huge density altitude change between your two range sessions. The cold one may have been at or below sea level DA. 55F @ 4500' altitude may be close to standard conditions. Dial in the changes in conditions and see how close it conforms.
Finding solutions to this sort of thing is the both frustrating and fascinating thing about this hobby. Kind of like women.....
KB
Your Density altitude alone could easily put you off by .5 mil. A chrony is usually +/-1%. There is your margin error. Your numbers ( fps, bc ) could be perfect, your can have 0temp variance and you could be off that much. Nothing replaces actually shooting at range and getting good DOPE.