You are very correct in some regards......The only way to get a velocity which is a proxy for gas push from the explosion in the chamber is to model the whole system. That means length of your bbl. Your caliber, what weight bullet you are shooting,
and the size of your chamber, freebore, AI , etc. Also, your bullet seating depth and coal.
Those physics are what make an internal balistics model like GRT or Quickload.
But as a starting point ,if all you want to know is for my rifle system, which is a constant , what powder can get me a higher velocity without exceeding safe pressure in a relative sense , which is a slower burning powder with more gradual gas expansion and pressure, then the starting point on the burn rate curve is a good relative comparator. Thats the BA factor.