Check your ES. I would check that chrony with another, seems a small error on FPS will magnify itself hyperbolically as distances increase. If you decrease your entered FPS on your calculator by incremental steps until the solution data coincides with physical data that will give you the real FPS. I have a few chrony's and every one is off a small amount. Low light to high light will change a chrony's reading by a few FPS, end of barrel vs 20 ft. will change it, muzzle flash by over loads will change it. I was at the range and a shooter was complaining about the ES on a load, he asked me about it. I could see he had unburned powder out the end and told him what I could see, he went home, reduced his charge by 5 grns., moved his chrony out to 20 ft. and his ES dropped to within 10. His chrony was picking up muzzle flash. He was shooting great groups at 100 yds but would have been all over at 1000. Lots of variables, and being able to recognize and diagnose the the problem is what makes a good shot into a very good shot. Experience is the key, the more problems you can successfully solve the better you will be. All the best.