This is not addressed to me, but my perspective is as follows:
You said, "I have had great experience w QL.
It is usually very close and I fine tune it by varying burn rate for each
batch of powder to match actual measured velocity."
That has been my experience as well until recently. As stated in the second response to the OP's original post my experience with Magpro tells me the burn rate is way low and Ramshot Hunter way high.
My guess, no data, is QuickLOAD is not keeping up with burn rate changes. Lot to lot variation has always required recalibration but nothing like what I am seeing now.
Your questions are spot on. Yes, I do weight brass volumes, it was hot, but I adjusted temperature, throw weights were within .02 grains.
I believe what I am seeing recently is well beyond the usual lot to lot burn rate variation.
Just my $.02.
If you're using all of or part of QL entries in program, you're running around in the fog expecting to get where you want. As has been said here before, you need to put the sweat into the program to get good results.
1) Starting pressure
There are people really smart who have come up with formulas to calculate this. I found them years ago, and with minor changes seem to be right on. This does make a difference. Huge if you compare with shooting at / touching lands versus shooting with a lot of jump.
Look in the info in that box and see what they say about seating bullet against the lands versus psi.
2) Weighting factor
There are also charts can be found on internet listing weighting factors for cartridges. QL is close on some and not so much on others.
3) Measuring case volumes and adjusting QL a must
4) Shooting with a muzzle break can also mess it up. Shoot without muzzle break and compare to with brake. You might be shocked. I know I have been. Especially on the bigger volume cases like magnums. I've even had to add length of brake to barrel to make it work with a brake that's too tight. ( doesn't release enough pressure)
5) Temperature adjustment is huge. Absolutely necessary. And I mean ambient AND temp of cartridge. ( is it in your pocket at 60* or is it outside at ambient?!)
6) Weigh your bullets
7) If you want to really amaze yourself, look for the article explaining bullet time in the barrel versus harmonics / acoustics. This is relating to using QL. He furnishes a complete chart with most barrel lengths and the corresponding BT. ( bullet time in barrel.
You then can go to QL and actually see this # bottom right quadrant listed above amount of powder burnt.
8) I've learned my most accurate loads have the absolutely the lowest muzzle pressure I can get with all the combinations.
9) I put the barrel length / powder burnt graph in bottom left quadrant. If I see the vertical purple line showing all burnt , I'm happy. If I see it in middle of graph I'm excited. This has a direct result on how much unburnt powder flying out end of barrel which also causes muzzle psi to go up = NOT GOOD !!!!!
FYI
Personally, I load for accuracy with the most velocity with perfect BT and 100% burn on powder with a full case even compressed some times.
This is not all possible all the time. But it's what I strive for. Shouldn't have to say but I will, ALL within PSI you want to be at.
If you don't care about beating the crap out of a gun, go for it. I know I used to!!
Barrels are expensive and the the time wait very frustrating.