While it might have been 69 shots in this case .. if it was only luck- as implied- than it could statistically have been the first shot also. Kind of like a deck of cards. If you are playing a card game that a single card from a deck represents your immediate death.. would you play?
However - all of the numbers for every shooting group keep moving out to longer, tighter groups and hits.
The Canadian shot took place due to pieces being in the right place at the right time, a jump in technology, best of the best training, and tools that were available then that where not just a few years previously. Why do you think sniper record jumped hundreds of meters vs 10m?
The recent 17/19 hits at K1M... with a "light gun" ... could it have been done 3 yrs ago? Heck, the cartridge wasn't available 5yrs ago.
The cold bore/three hits challenge is now over 2500yds. Statistically speaking going back 10yrs- how many three shot groups would be required to make three consecutive hits at over 2500yds would have had to be taken?
Who can argue that Kestrels, AB and all of the ballistic engines have not kept moving forward.
At K2M they were shooting 800yd targets with their 22cal for poops and grins.. though I think the record hits are up over 1400yds with a 22. In this case quality, software and again use of a technology that was not available 5yrs ago. We engage targets with are AR10 at over 2k... technology or just shooting a lot of bullets? In this case it is not a lot of bullets.
Shooting the first 4000yd target a few years back also took 69rds for a first impact. However a dozen hits within 1ft of target took place. Two of which I can not figure out how they missed except for the plate moving. Once on target- finding initial hits was a bit of a job in wet sandy conditions- the hit was made within 6rounds. To be truthful 2-3 shooters could put up 3 rds each in the time of flight. You would not want to be there on their arrival. To note that shot had 125yds of windage and a max ordinance of 1500ft. This recent shot was 2500 ft up there.
We are working with components to go 5000yds... yep a bunch of shots. However, at present, how many software's of max ordnances like that are built in. The technology has to make a jump to go that distance- in our case a new optic.
In the case of this shot, optics were used that were not available 5yrs ago. The barrel- how many barrels could run and not raise above 91deg over 69shots 5yrs ago? Actually we just repeated a 40sec firing cycle and the barrels rose 50deg over 15shots with the chamber being less than 20deg higher in temp. And a flat velocity and steady SD over the string. That/our barrel is about to make a jump in technology- cooler, stiffer, longer life... this kind of effort pushes us to the next technology.
These guys started out with a goal. To make a long distant hit- of which, for us, we were fortunate to be there on day 1. That day one started with a visit and hands on time on components to be used. They achieved their goal. While being called "lucky" you have to have enough control in place to even get there and be close enough to be lucky. Taking a 50cal and filling the sky will take more than 69rounds.
Even since the rounds were shot - potentially more efficient rounds are being used. Look at the results of K2M- in one case multiple team members made it to finals. I will have to find out the running years total score and see if the top 20 aggregate scores increase.
Do I think we will land hits on 4000yds within 2-6rounds in the next 3-5yrs... yes. Any friendly wagers? This is said in friendly "jest" - but we will get there.
