As a barrel ages, it can change its personality as to what bullets it will shoot well and the velocity it can produce to some degree, however, this can be adjusted for. A barrel will get a rougher bore surface as its used. Often times, if a relatively thin jacketed bullet is being used, this rougher bore surface can generate more heat in the bullet. Which in turn can weaken the bond between the jacket and the core of the bullet. When this happens, accuracy often drops off, sometimes marginally, sometimes dramatically. The larger the round, the longer the heavier the bullet and the faster the velocity, the more you will see this. Other factors such as baring surface compression play a huge roll in this as well.
an example of this was back when i released my 7mm Allen Magnum. I was then working with Lilja barrels to make me a barrel specifically designed to shoot the then prototype 200 gr uld rbbt from Wildcat bullets. These were things that had not been done before that time, bullets this heavy in a 7mm and driven to the speeds i was hoping for which was initially 3200 fps. In reality we went well over this. As such, i asked Lilja to make me THE barrel for this application.
the result was an 8 twist, 3 groove barrel that showed up. Initial testing went very well and we even pushed 3300 fps with fine accuracy. Orders started rolling in after these results were reported and before i new it i had dozens of rifles out to customers……
then the issues started showing up with accuracy problems after 100-150 rounds or so. Inspecting these rifles showed some roughness in the bore for sure and it was clear that the 200 gr bullets were not liking these barrels. The 200 gr 7mm was built on the berger J4 jacket.
I took these returned rifles and tested them with other bullets and found that with a HARDER bullet such as the 160 gr accubond or a very hard bullet, like the barnes TTSX bullets, accuracy returned to its original 1/2 moa or better levels and velocity was still extremely impressive. So much so that about half of the customers with these early rifles simply choose to shoot the harder bullets and loved the results.
still, this was not what this chambering was designed for. I wanted extreme BC, with very high velocity for ballistic performance not seen before or rarely since.
so i decided to test several barrels to see what different twist rates and what different rifling design would do with these extreme bullets. tested barrels from Pac nor, broughton, rock creek, krieger and Lilja. Do not think bartlein was around at that time.
tested 4 groove, 5 gr, 6 gr, standard rifling, canted rifling, radiused rifling. Also kept track of the baring surface compression of each barrel type, this being the amount of the bullet baring surface that was being compressed by the lands of the rifling.
was truly a monster testing process which as a relatively new shop was pretty hard on me financially but needed to find out what was happening.
in the end, it was found that in my 7mm Allen Mag, in a cut rifled barrel, even a standard 9 twist would keep these 200 gr bullets on point out to well past 1000 yards with fine consistency. With a button pulled barrel, the rifling true pitch can often be a bit shallower then advertised so we stayed with the 8 twist on these barrels which often had a true twist rate of around 8.25" twist. However, baring surface compression was a huge issue. Anything over 20-21% baring surface compression would start to cause failures in flight after the barrels had 100 or so firings on them.
the number of rifling did not seem to matter nearly as much as the width of the lands as far as accuracy and consistency were concerned.
however its a fine line we walk to get precision and then as much barrel life as possible. this is why lilja had recommended the 3 groove barrels because they have very wide lands which should resist erosion much longer then thin lands would for longer barrel accuracy life. Walking a tight rope!!!
in the end, paid lilja to set up with a custom button to make a specially designed 4 groove barrel and those for the most part worked well. In 2013-2015, i transitioned to bartlein barrels, simply because they are the best all around barrels i have used. Accurate as any out there, good life, faster then most and a great group of guys to work with.
in your case, your accuracy issues may or may not represent a need to change the barrel. As mentioned, a good proper cleaning could make a huge difference, i have had dozens of 257 wby rifles brought to the shop with burnt out barrels and after a few days removing a few pennies worth of copper fouling the rifles shot just fine.
in your situation, that may also be the case. depending on the bullet your shooting now, you may need to change to a bit harder bullet. Many times this will give you much more usable barrel life and today there are many good options for hard bullets then there was back then.
if you do need to replace the barrel, that carbon fiber is hard to swallow price wise for sure. This is generally why i tell customers or potential customers of my rifles that while carbon looks nice and will save some weight, you can often buy two stainless barrels for the price of one carbon wrapped barrel and barrel life with the carbon will be no different then the all steel if both are made from the same steel alloy.
i would do some testing before you committed right to a new barrel, there could be significant life left in your barrel…..