For what it's worth, here's some insight as to what the very best (NRA classified High Master, top 3%) 1000-yard bullseye shooters do with their first shot. Even when they've been shooting the same load in the same rifle for the previous 2 or 3 days. And all at the same range, in the same direction, at the same altitude and virtually the same atmospheric conditions...except for wind. So they've got their rifles well zeroed.
After estimating the cross wind speed by watching the mirage at different points down range through their spotting scope, they'll make a windage adjustment to correct for it then fire their first shot. No more than 10% of them will put their first bullet inside the 10-inch X-ring.
I don't believe long range hunting folks are any better. I hear about their kills, but never anything about how far their first shot misses the intended 10-inch vital area on game. I also believe the best of them are as good as the best of the long range bullseye busters.