There is a simple way to see what's happening, though I don't have the exact science to explain it. It seems to be self explanatory to me. I've argued this point before, but I'm not always perfect when it comes to explaining how things look in my brain.
One measurement I haven't seen discussed here is the actual overall length of the case. If you fire your case once and the overall length of the case grows before sizing, this will indicate that you have stretched the case wall, which indicates that in your chamber with your brass, the shoulder is not being held in place via a false shoulder,jammed bullet or some other means. I'm sure other issues could cause this, but it does give you some indication of where the brass is moving. If a fired case does not grow in length (or grows very little), it's likely that the case is being blown out as it should be.
From what I've seen most brass will tolerate .020-.030 of combined growth, meaning that if you bump the shoulder .020 you should get 10-14 firing per case ( obviously dependent on quality) before your case has seen .020-.030 of stretch on the case wall.
This is part of the reason that I believe a lot of people have issues with belted mags, if not done right, you can see .012-.030 of stretch in the case wall in the first firing leaving very little for reloading.
If the wall blows out, you have a lot of life left, if the should blows forward, you have used up most of the life in the first firing....hence....case head separating in the 3 firings for some people.
Hopefully that makes sense.