Ok, now explain why large pistol and large rifle primers are extremely hard to find, and magnum rifle is forgetaboutit!
If you look at what happened the firearm market in 2019-2020 there was a huge jump in the purchase of new firearms. While I don't have any data based on what I saw as an RSO was that most of these new purchases were for AR-15 style rifles and 9mm pistols. A good overview is in the article below.
Unfortunately, the ammunition suppliers had a fixed manufacturing capability and the economics of business says you do not expand production for only a short term increase in demand because whatever monies are invested in new manufacturing will not be utilized in the long run. The industry had only a small increment of additional capacity and became overwhelmed with demand at the same time that Remington went into bankruptcy and shut down. Oh, and then there was COVID…. Below is a consumer's view of what happened based on what information I have seen over the last 14 years of watching the industry.
The result is that the ammunition manufacturers' saw a huge increase in demand and also a major shift in consumer's caliber choice. The result was a shortage of manufacturing capacity and a major shift in the demand mix. Over the previous 10 to 12 years the mix of calibers on the range has changed as well as the quantity of ammunition shot on given range outing. in 2012 the majority of rifles on our range were bolt action rifles in calibers/cartridges typically from 223 to 338 with the preponderance being 308 calibers and typically the shooters would shoot a box (20 rounds) or two at the most. Fast forward to 2024 and most rifles being shot are semi auto and predominately 223/5.56x45. It's nothing to see shooters shooting 60 or more rounds per person. In pistol where in 2012 there was a mix of 40 S&W, 9mm Lugar and 45 ACP. Today the 40 S&W is all but extinct and the 45 ACP is left to us old farts who are looking for 1911's in 9mm because our hand strength is waning! Oh, the government decided in 2015 that the 9mm was better suited than the 40 so the federal government began switching back to the 9mm along with many state and local agencies.
As for primers it gets even more interesting. Primers are an explosive component of ammunition and there are storage regulations and limitations along with permitting restrictions, etc. Lead is a critical component and a HAZMAT material. It is a critical component of ammunition and as such manufacturers do not want to run short of primers so they produce more of any particular type than they expect to consume. However they must also manage their storage so when the storage of a particular primer becomes a factor they can sell to the reloading market primers which may be overstocked to make room for a different type, Do they anticipate and allocate/manufacture strictly for the reloading market? I doubt it's a major item of concern as the true value of a primer in ammunition far exceeds what we have historically paid for it. The existing production capacity not only saw a huge increase in demand but the shift to the small rifle cartridge demand took production capacity away from the large rifle primer production. Adding capacity is not something that happens overnight. Simply permitting additional capacity could take a year or more of permitting before any real action is likely to be taken in actually designing/procuring and constructing a new production line on an existing site. A new facility would have an even longer permitting process that could easily take two or three years.
Bottom line is if there is a shortage of cartridge types that use a particular size of primer then you bet on the fact that those primers will be in short or no supply.
I'll also add a comment on pricing. Price hikes that occur due to short term availability issues tend to fall back to the previous pricing levels. Price hikes to inflation in basic materials, government action or legislation, or long term market changes do not typically return to previous levels unless one of the basic causes undergoes a fundamental change.
After dramatic ups and downs over the past decade, things have been relatively “stable” over the past year and a half.
shootingindustry.com
