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What could cause group outliers?

Excert from 12/21 RifleShooter magazine by Jason Stanley

"5-Shot-Group Shapes: Here's What Your Groups Are Telling You"


4. Double Grouping
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Double grouping (3/2 or 4/1 pattern) is an indication that your load is getting too hot. Pressure signs may also accompany these groups.

Just thought I would throw this in. You might search for this article. I found it helpful.
Best of luck finding your load!
 
Excert from 12/21 RifleShooter magazine by Jason Stanley

"5-Shot-Group Shapes: Here's What Your Groups Are Telling You"


4. Double Grouping
View attachment 438122

Double grouping (3/2 or 4/1 pattern) is an indication that your load is getting too hot. Pressure signs may also accompany these groups.

Just thought I would throw this in. You might search for this article. I found it helpful.
Best of luck finding your load!
Thank you! This is the article here: https://www.rifleshootermag.com/editorial/5-shot-group-shapes/454958

It's too bad the article doesn't reveal why pressure would lead to double groups. Regardless, I suppose it's possible that I'm over pressure but if so probably not by much. The Alliant data for TS 15.5 powder for 308 is here. I'm at 44gr in lapua brass.
 
Thank you! This is the article here: https://www.rifleshootermag.com/editorial/5-shot-group-shapes/454958

It's too bad the article doesn't reveal why pressure would lead to double groups. Regardless, I suppose it's possible that I'm over pressure but if so probably not by much. The Alliant data for TS 15.5 powder for 308 is here. I'm at 44gr in lapua brass.
Pressure relates to velocity. We choose the powder for our loads based on the estimated velocity that the charge will produce and shoot the most accurately. That is why we shoot ladders when trying to find that sweet spot our barrel likes. When pressure increase or decreases we can expect the bullets sent down the barrel to vary in their flight path to the target. Shoot a hotter load (velocity not temp wise) and the bullet will impact the target higher simply because gravity has had less time to act on the bullet. Shoot a cooler load (velocity not temp) and the slower moving bullet will shoot lower simply because gravity has had a longer time to act on the bullet. The same thing happens with ambient temperatures and pressure. Back in the day when the power was not as stable temp wise astute target shooters would take this into consideration. If the rifle was sighted in at 70 degrees and we are on the range getting ready to shoot and it's 90 degrees out the increase of 20 degrees will cause an increase in muzzle velocity proportionate to the difference in temperature. Conversely a drop in temperature will cause a drop in muzzle velocity. Other things to keep in mind is that if ammunition is kept in a hot car the temperatures will increase to the interior temperature of the vehicle, which can rise 40 or 50 degrees above ambient temperatures. This will cause a significant increase in muzzle velocity. It can also cause an increase in pressure which can result in an over pressure condition. When shooting competitively in the Army during the summer we were using Lake City Match ammo. We would take our ammunition out of our vehicle and place it in a shady place, sometimes in the shadow of the vehicle so that the temperature of the ammo would be close to ambient. At one point, and I do not know how true it is today the guideline was that for every 10 degrees hotter or colder would equal 100 FPS in velocity. Another consideration back then was that we were shooting both slow and rapid fire. The barrel chambers were hot from the continuous shooting. When shooting the slow fire stages we did not place the cartridge into the chamber of the rifle until we were ready to shoot. This kept the cartridge from heating up due to dwell time in the chamber which would cause an increase in temperature, thus velocity. There was no way to compute the dwell time vs temperature increase if the cartridge remains in the chamber. The process used back then was to place the cartridge on top of the magazine of the open action. When ready to shoot the bolt was closed and the shot taken as soon as accurately possible after cambering the round. This would minimize the temperature increase and as best possible minimize the temperature increase of the cartridge. My own personal dwell time after chambering the round was 10 seconds. If for some reason I did not get the shot off within 10 seconds of chambering the round I would eject it and place it on the side and load another, cooler round and start over. For those of you who cherish the first cold barrel round keep this in mind.

So in answer to the question about pressure, keep in mind pressure equals velocity and changes in velocity affect the flight of the bullet. For hunters who are worried about the treasured first round out of cold barrel, make sure you check your zero under the same conditions that you will be hunting in, especially altitude and temperature.

Keep in mind the words of LTC Lones Wigger, USAMU - Only hits count. ;)
 
I tried the the jump ladder. I was able to get a 7 shot group down to 0.7 MOA if you throw out the worst shot (so best 6). With all 7 it's 1.2 MOA. Interestingly, the best 6 is two very distinct clusters stacked right atop one another.

I think that is likely good enough for a practice round from this rifle, but I'd want to repeat it. The bad news is that rounds shorter than that it's pretty ugly real fast and I can't really load longer without single feeding. So, instead of buying more I'll probably try a different bullet, maybe one of the heavier Hornady SST's since it loves the 125 SST so much. If anybody has suggestions for affordable bullets that shoot well in rifles that love SMK's, I'd appreciate any tips.

Thanks again for all the info, this has been a great learning exercise. Hopefully it helps someone down the line who's having double groups themselves.
 
Pressure relates to velocity. We choose the powder for our loads based on the estimated velocity that the charge will produce and shoot the most accurately. That is why we shoot ladders when trying to find that sweet spot our barrel likes. When pressure increase or decreases we can expect the bullets sent down the barrel to vary in their flight path to the target. Shoot a hotter load (velocity not temp wise) and the bullet will impact the target higher simply because gravity has had less time to act on the bullet. Shoot a cooler load (velocity not temp) and the slower moving bullet will shoot lower simply because gravity has had a longer time to act on the bullet. The same thing happens with ambient temperatures and pressure. Back in the day when the power was not as stable temp wise astute target shooters would take this into consideration. If the rifle was sighted in at 70 degrees and we are on the range getting ready to shoot and it's 90 degrees out the increase of 20 degrees will cause an increase in muzzle velocity proportionate to the difference in temperature. Conversely a drop in temperature will cause a drop in muzzle velocity. Other things to keep in mind is that if ammunition is kept in a hot car the temperatures will increase to the interior temperature of the vehicle, which can rise 40 or 50 degrees above ambient temperatures. This will cause a significant increase in muzzle velocity. It can also cause an increase in pressure which can result in an over pressure condition. When shooting competitively in the Army during the summer we were using Lake City Match ammo. We would take our ammunition out of our vehicle and place it in a shady place, sometimes in the shadow of the vehicle so that the temperature of the ammo would be close to ambient. At one point, and I do not know how true it is today the guideline was that for every 10 degrees hotter or colder would equal 100 FPS in velocity. Another consideration back then was that we were shooting both slow and rapid fire. The barrel chambers were hot from the continuous shooting. When shooting the slow fire stages we did not place the cartridge into the chamber of the rifle until we were ready to shoot. This kept the cartridge from heating up due to dwell time in the chamber which would cause an increase in temperature, thus velocity. There was no way to compute the dwell time vs temperature increase if the cartridge remains in the chamber. The process used back then was to place the cartridge on top of the magazine of the open action. When ready to shoot the bolt was closed and the shot taken as soon as accurately possible after cambering the round. This would minimize the temperature increase and as best possible minimize the temperature increase of the cartridge. My own personal dwell time after chambering the round was 10 seconds. If for some reason I did not get the shot off within 10 seconds of chambering the round I would eject it and place it on the side and load another, cooler round and start over. For those of you who cherish the first cold barrel round keep this in mind.

So in answer to the question about pressure, keep in mind pressure equals velocity and changes in velocity affect the flight of the bullet. For hunters who are worried about the treasured first round out of cold barrel, make sure you check your zero under the same conditions that you will be hunting in, especially altitude and temperature.

Keep in mind the words of LTC Lones Wigger, USAMU - Only hits count. ;)
Teri, here is a list of powder temperature sensitivities and the related change in fps per degree Fahrenheit. Compiled by another member on here, not mine, just posting it here for everyone's use. Assuming that the reloader knows what the temperature range was when the load was developed, adjustments can be made and tested accordingly for accuracy.
 

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Teri, here is a list of powder temperature sensitivities and the related change in fps per degree Fahrenheit. Compiled by another member on here, not mine, just posting it here for everyone's use. Assuming that the reloader knows what the temperature range was when the load was developed, adjustments can be made and tested accordingly for accuracy.
Interesting chart. The only issue I see with it is knowing what the actual temperature of each cartridge is. The outside air temperature, while useful has little to do with the internal temperature of the cartridge case. It may be 70 degrees out but that box of ammo laying out in the sun the internal temperature, like your car on a sunny day can be many degrees hotter. Same goes for any ammo stored in that car. I guess one could use one of those laser temperature sensors that mechanics use to check the coolant or exhaust temperatures to check each cartridge before firing to check case temps, and for benchrest shooters that could be an option but for someone hunting or shooting competitively not very practical.
 
I have what seems like a good load developed using 178 ELDM bullets with TS 15.5 in Lapua brass but I'm experiencing odd fliers. SD is ~10 fps over a large number of loads and velocity is averaging 2590 fps. On average, out of 4 shot groups (odd number but it's how many my internal mag holds so thats usually what I do with this rifle) I'll have 3 making up a 2/3 MOA (or less) group and the other shot is 1.5 to 2 inches away. Sometimes this is 2 of 4 touching, sometimes is just a good group for all 4 shots. This rifle will generally shoot just under 1 MOA groups with a good load: no match rifle but fliers are not the norm. However, it is a bit picky of a barrel: not all projectiles shoot well in it.

I'm inclined to chock it up to one (or more) of a the following causes:
  1. These are pandemic projectiles so perhaps I may have a not-so-good batch.
  2. My jump maybe in a sensitive spot (only tried one jump so far), although I do check the CBTO on all rounds and they're quite consistant showing a variance of about 1 to 1.5 thousandths.
  3. These are just not a good bullet for this picky barrel.
I'm interested to know what more experienced people think. Thanks in advance.
I'm inclined to go with #3.

Although, I would first try 3 - 4 batches either closer or further from the lands.
 
I have what seems like a good load developed using 178 ELDM bullets with TS 15.5 in Lapua brass but I'm experiencing odd fliers. SD is ~10 fps over a large number of loads and velocity is averaging 2590 fps. On average, out of 4 shot groups (odd number but it's how many my internal mag holds so thats usually what I do with this rifle) I'll have 3 making up a 2/3 MOA (or less) group and the other shot is 1.5 to 2 inches away. Sometimes this is 2 of 4 touching, sometimes is just a good group for all 4 shots. This rifle will generally shoot just under 1 MOA groups with a good load: no match rifle but fliers are not the norm. However, it is a bit picky of a barrel: not all projectiles shoot well in it.

I'm inclined to chock it up to one (or more) of a the following causes:
  1. These are pandemic projectiles so perhaps I may have a not-so-good batch.
  2. My jump maybe in a sensitive spot (only tried one jump so far), although I do check the CBTO on all rounds and they're quite consistant showing a variance of about 1 to 1.5 thousandths.
  3. These are just not a good bullet for this picky barrel.
I'm interested to know what more experienced people think. Thanks in advance.
Hi SuperBruce, if you have a micrometer measure the o.d. bearing surface of the bullets. You may be surprised, hornady bullets can vary a half thousands in diameter from lot to lot. Sierra bullets that I have are mostly right on the money but if they do vary its usually undersized by 1 or 2 ten thousandths. I talked with hornady sent the bullets in and they sent me 3 boxes of .264 eldm 2 boxes were the same lot the other box from a different lot. The 2 boxes with the same lot measured oversized .26435 to .26445, the other lot .26405-.26400.
 
I have what seems like a good load developed using 178 ELDM bullets with TS 15.5 in Lapua brass but I'm experiencing odd fliers. SD is ~10 fps over a large number of loads and velocity is averaging 2590 fps. On average, out of 4 shot groups (odd number but it's how many my internal mag holds so thats usually what I do with this rifle) I'll have 3 making up a 2/3 MOA (or less) group and the other shot is 1.5 to 2 inches away. Sometimes this is 2 of 4 touching, sometimes is just a good group for all 4 shots. This rifle will generally shoot just under 1 MOA groups with a good load: no match rifle but fliers are not the norm. However, it is a bit picky of a barrel: not all projectiles shoot well in it.

I'm inclined to chock it up to one (or more) of a the following causes:
  1. These are pandemic projectiles so perhaps I may have a not-so-good batch.
  2. My jump maybe in a sensitive spot (only tried one jump so far), although I do check the CBTO on all rounds and they're quite consistant showing a variance of about 1 to 1.5 thousandths.
  3. These are just not a good bullet for this picky barrel.
I'm interested to know what more experienced people think. Thanks in advance.
I would leave the primer alone for now. On 3 occassions where I had an errant flier out of every group It was always one that was after number 1 and 2. I have several rifles that have either interal box magazines or removable magazines and also a Ruger #1 single shot. I had the flier issuer with two (very light) .270win rifles and one standard older Remington 700BDL in 30-06. I quickly got to the bottom of it by shooting the same rounds through the Ruger #1. 10 shots in a row allowing 2-3 minutes between shots, made a less than 3/4 moa group at 100yds while through the two bolt rifles I'd have 1 out of 5 a flier. Here's my steps to find the culprit. Noting the success with the Ruger #1 and the differences in the action. So I took both .270win rifles and manually fed each round, rather than loading the magazine. Lo and behold the flier disappeared completely. I had pulled rounds apart, verified charge weights using several scales, verified bullet weights and measurements and brass length. Then I loaded up the magazine with rounds that I had numbered 2-4 with a sharpie (#1 was in the chamber for 5 total rounds), Each shot I would remove each round from the magazine and measure the overall length. Put them back in the same order and finished. I found that after shot 2 the length of the rounds was increasing, some more than others. I had occasionally experience difficulty feeding issues once in a while which I now attribute to this discovery. Recoil in the light rifles was causing bullets to jump forward thus lenghtening their OAL. This changes the distances to the lands thus changing my point of impact. So I started annealing my case necks and neck tension on the bullets never loosened up again. No more fliers, a simple fix but a tedious troubleshooting process.
 
Hi. When I have unhappy groups, I look first at my technique and setup. I feel confident that I have loaded the ammo consistently.
My favorite question: Can you call your shots?
Wind and mirage can be factors, too. Do you use wind fags?
 
I would leave the primer alone for now. On 3 occassions where I had an errant flier out of every group It was always one that was after number 1 and 2. I have several rifles that have either interal box magazines or removable magazines and also a Ruger #1 single shot. I had the flier issuer with two (very light) .270win rifles and one standard older Remington 700BDL in 30-06. I quickly got to the bottom of it by shooting the same rounds through the Ruger #1. 10 shots in a row allowing 2-3 minutes between shots, made a less than 3/4 moa group at 100yds while through the two bolt rifles I'd have 1 out of 5 a flier. Here's my steps to find the culprit. Noting the success with the Ruger #1 and the differences in the action. So I took both .270win rifles and manually fed each round, rather than loading the magazine. Lo and behold the flier disappeared completely. I had pulled rounds apart, verified charge weights using several scales, verified bullet weights and measurements and brass length. Then I loaded up the magazine with rounds that I had numbered 2-4 with a sharpie (#1 was in the chamber for 5 total rounds), Each shot I would remove each round from the magazine and measure the overall length. Put them back in the same order and finished. I found that after shot 2 the length of the rounds was increasing, some more than others. I had occasionally experience difficulty feeding issues once in a while which I now attribute to this discovery. Recoil in the light rifles was causing bullets to jump forward thus lenghtening their OAL. This changes the distances to the lands thus changing my point of impact. So I started annealing my case necks and neck tension on the bullets never loosened up again. No more fliers, a simple fix but a tedious troubleshooting proces findly saw where he was using Lupua brass. I just got done with reading on flyers, and mark the cases that are creating the problem or what you may think is creating the problem. Cull the case from the group and try another case inplace
Following
 
This is my belief every bullet design has one flaw material used requires melting lead or composite material to form the core of the bullet then poured or pressed into amold or jacket micro air bubbles can be displaced through this process mabe 1 bubble or even 2 can cause the bullet to become an out flyer just like your car or truck tire when lose of 1 lead balance comes off the rim. Because new processes in bullet making not every bullet in the same batch will have micro bubble in it as is why 3 bullets group perfect and 1 or 2 out flyers. Note; this is my view only and consider heat and cold exspand and contrac all metal which allow 1 micro bubble to create a flyer.
 
In a hunting gun.... don't let barrel get warm.....
I shoot the same target 2-5 days in a row.
1 shot... only
With dirty barrel.....
Good advise. Also, with all those shots, it could be the shooter. All my guns shoot better than I do, especially after a long day at the range. If the first four are good, the group can only stay the same, or get bigger. If it's not a hunting gun, there is a recent thread written by someone from Berger bullets and their recommendation on how to get the jump correct for VLD bullets. I tried a version of it today shooting all the ammo I had loaded for hunting season. I'm heading down to the reload bench to prepare for part 2, tomorrow or Wednesday. If I have anything good to report, I'll post again.…even if my experiment is a complete failure. I never have learned anything when everything went right…only false hope for the next time.
 
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