It is largely due to pressure variations, versus pressure at initial load creation. Better said, at any temp, when the gun and load are TUNED together, you have to remember that under those conditions, that is where it will shoot best. When the temp drops, the pressure created by the burning powder decreases due to temp resistance. When the temp rises, so does your pressure, and sometimes to the extreme. Temp also effects the way the barrel oscillates. As the temp lowers, the stiffer the steel gets, and the warmer, the softer it gets. When you complex those two things alone, you can get a better picture on cause and effect. Sometimes it seems as though everything is working against you. The worst case scenario happened to me this past hunting season. When I did my load development, it was in the fall. The weather was at it's usual for that time, and hunting season was 2 weeks away. When I got down to Maryland, the temp was in the 70's. When I did my spot shooting, the day before, I had to lower all of my settings due to higher pressures. Record keeping is paramount in this sport. When conditions change, so does consistency. Hope this helps.
7STW.