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SOLD/EXPIRED Has Component Inflation Peaked or Is It Gonna Get Worse?

Veteran

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2021
Messages
5,860
Location
Michigan
There may be some initial or tenative signs inflation is trying to moderate a little. But these indicators may swing wildly before a clear trend is observable.

The only reason at all to be hopeful is that the Federal Reserve seems to be quite serious. They raised rates 3/4 of a point in June, the largest rate hike since 1994.

They are saying they intend to hike rates another 3/4 of a point in July.

The result of this so far is that commodity prices like gold, silver, copper, and oil are showing some weakness and may have topped out? It sort of
depends on how the volatility in the markets settles into place.

As the Fed continues to wage war on inflation w big hikes, the fear of a growth recession is going to cool the economy and inflation and commodities.

Watch copper and oil. If they are going down or stable at a lower level, the Fed may be catching up in its bid to crush inflation.

My thought is unless you have to, you may not want to buy primers at 125 plus. If inflation and the economy and metals and oil prices moderate, they could be back at $75 to $100 in a year.....who knows? But I think the key is to watch the tug of war between the FED and commodities......see who is winning and which way costs will go. I hope Gunbroker scammers selling primers over $200 all go broke.

Watch and see which way the wind blows.......there are some early signs
..but it will be like a roller coaster ride until the Fed catches up and passes inflation w hikes to crush it.

I believe they will because they know Venezuela is the alternative.
 
I wouldn't hold my breath thinking it's going to go down any time soon. It nay reach the point of stagflation but until they start catching up with the price of oil it isn't going to go down in any significant way. Unless the economy crashes like in 2009.
 
I have maintained that the cure for high prices is high prices and it is finally happening. Vendors tried to hold the line on prices with the vindictive "gouging" accusations, and since the market clearing price was higher than what they were selling for, resellers stepped in to fill the gap, and all sorts of hoarding ensued.

Prices have to rise high enough that we say "no thanks" and the resellers see no opportunity, and inventory sits. Over the past month or two the very high primer prices have caused inventory to not sell out in 3 minutes. This is a good sign - I have seen some primers stay in stock for a week or more at the high prices. I think we slowly drift downwards from here. We aren't going to see $35 a box, but I'd bet $60 a box within about 2 years.
 
Saw on the news where retailers are finally starting to get some of their China orders unloaded and into the warehouses and stores. Problem is they have no where to put some of it and they are starting to steeply discount it because they are overstocked. This is happening at a time when consumers are starting to pull back on spending because of recession fears. Go figure.

I have noticed some Hornady bullets starting to show up online at several places at acceptable prices so I bought a few.
Also remember from some of @Veteran posts that primers are not selling out as fast....
 
I wouldn't hold my breath thinking it's going to go down any time soon. It nay reach the point of stagflation but until they start catching up with the price of oil it isn't going to go down in any significant way. Unless the economy crashes like in 2009.
Price of WTI peaked at about $120.
Last week it lost 7-8 dollars in one day, down to 97 per bbl. Now back to $104 ish......so see if it stays where it is, continues to climb again or trends lower......Recession w high rates means loss of demand and lower prices..Maybe?
 
A lot more trading in near geographical areas and unloading spare bullets amongst us will help drive down prices. It's a small amount but every bit helps.
 
IDK, Natchez just listed some BR2 for $165/1K, plus tax, shipping & Hazmat lol. I think this is the most expensive I've seen from the larger retailers so far but hopefully we're near the peak. Luckily I'm set on almost everything other than a new cartridge and caliber popping up, but should be able to trade components for what I have plenty of. Feel like it will be quite a while before it trends back down, probably never back to $39 ish/1K.
 
I sense that some component price stability is beginning to occur. Gun sales are declining nation wide & ammo demand should decline. More and a greater variety of smokless powder seems to be availble. (see above) My guess & hope is when the demand for such popular ammo like 9mm Luger & 223 declines the ammo & primer makers can catch up with demand & offer a wider selection.

The recent Fed Reserve rate hikes gets met hinking about the Jimmy Carter years - like mortgage rates approaching 14%. Big interest rates could restrict growrh as less money will be in circulation/avalable and limit investment. This might have an adverse effect should lots of borrowed money be needed to build a giant primer factory producing zillions of primers Less money would be available to buy copper, brass & other materials or acquire or maintain existing machinery or to produce more product. Should credit card interest rates top 20% less money will be availble to buy stuff on credit. The stock market would take some kind of hit & money would go into other types of investments.

Wifey & I shoot at a local gun club and during the recent past some shooters would be active for hours and now it is unusual to see an active shooter for more than 1 hour. Little or no range brass to scrounge up.

I just spent $95 for 1000 Rem 7 1/2's for a variety of rifles including 6mm & 6.5 mm CM's at local Scheels store, no hazmat or shipping. Hope to see some large rifle primers this year.
 
wss
I have maintained that the cure for high prices is high prices and it is finally happening. Vendors tried to hold the line on prices with the vindictive "gouging" accusations, and since the market clearing price was higher than what they were selling for, resellers stepped in to fill the gap, and all sorts of hoarding ensued.

Prices have to rise high enough that we say "no thanks" and the resellers see no opportunity, and inventory sits. Over the past month or two the very high primer prices have caused inventory to not sell out in 3 minutes. This is a good sign - I have seen some primers stay in stock for a week or more at the high prices. I think we slowly drift downwards from here. We aren't going to see $35 a box, but I'd bet $60 a box within about 2 years.
Yes, the cure for high prices is high prices in every commodity cycle.

The cure for high inflation is high interest rates and taking away monetary stimulus through quantitative tightening in Fed assets by diminishing the Feds balance sheet instead of expanding it. Raising yields, not lowering them.

We are gonna have a big fat recession. Tighten your seat belts.
But its better medicine like cod fish liver oil than becoming Venezuela.

Yes in some respects this is just a replay of Jimmy Carter 2.0 in 1982.

Read the tea leaves. The tea leaves are oil prices and metals prices, copper especially, maybe watch lumber and house prices too. And of course interest rates. Right now we are at about 6% mortgages.

We are gonna likely have to get to 9 to 12% mortgages to get ahead of inflation and crush it .....that will also crush the economy and by the way primer prices......Cod Liver Oil hete we come!
 
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