Why would we see a surge of primers hit the market? You think these companies are holding out potential profits for some reason? No, they aren't.
Its not that they are holding back supply at the expense of total profits, but that they may not worry about selling less if they are doubling and tripling prices, which is what has happened, especially since Vista Outdoors bought up Federal, CCI, and Remington.
When price doubles or triples
selling more may not always be the goal.
It seems to me, what we are seeing is that when prices are double and triple and hold there for an extended period, it attracts other entrants to come to the market.
So we have Unis Genex, Sellier and Beloit, and now White River.
I have definitely seen some of the air coming out of prices too.
In particular Remington primers in large rifle and large rifle magnum are much more in supply lately.
Prices have dropped from a peak of 160 to 180 for large rifle magnum to more like 109 to 139.
I have seen Brownells in particular down at 87 to 100 range.
But, mostly lrp and lrmp selling at 109 to 119.
This all used to be a $40 market
before covid. Even if you count inflation of 30%, prices should not be over $52.
So, you can say no one is holding back supply , but US shooters
and reloaders did not double in numbers the last few years, especially not in large magnum rifle ammo vs. say 9 mm pistol.
The only thing one can say is maybe the war in Ukraine upped demand. But, the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, shut down at the same time.
On balance, I just think it seems supply is being held back to raise pricing.
You see Vista Outdoors buying Alliant and shutting it down too.
Why buy a company then shut down all its sales??? There is only one answer......
Hogodon bought IMR then shut down all its temperature protected Endurons because they are protecting the Hogodon Extreme powders, which they then have attempted to raise prices through the roof on.
No, these ammo makers, and component makers are not oblivious to inflation, but they
are guilty of over reaching
and greed as well.
There is no real reason why components like primers had to be raised in price by 300% when
inflation was only a cumulative 30% over 2 or three years.
The question is where we go from here? I think the market is pointing back to $80 lrp and lrmp's right now with new entrants and competition, and over few more years maybe $60 to $70. The air is going to come out of an artificially manipulated market which drives prices up far in excess of inflation abd cost.
The high prices cause new entrants and new competition as they should and are not sustainable in the long run.